Episode 266 Show Notes- Are We Witnessing History Repeat Itself and Is War Inevitable?
↓ The P.A.S. Report Podcast is on every podcast platform! ↓
Episode Description
Are we witnessing history repeat itself and is war inevitable? There are some eerie parallels in the lead-up to World War II and the current war in Ukraine. Using the levels of analysis, one can get an understanding of why countries behave the way they do and attempt to predict what may happen. The longer this war goes on, the greater chance for this conflict to metastasize. Too many are ignoring the unintended consequences of the policy being implemented that may play right into our adversaries’ hands.
Click the play button above to listen to the entire episode or you can listen on any podcast platform
Show Transcript- Are We Witnessing History Repeat Itself and Is War Inevitable?
P.A.S. Report Listeners Get 10% Off at Design It Yourself Gift Baskets! Use Code: PAS
*PA Strategies, LLC. earns a small commission when you make a purchase through any affiliate links on this website and within this post.
Intro
Welcome to The P.A.S. Report Podcast.
There is no doubt that we are in rough and uncertain times. The war in Ukraine continues to unfold. This has been really frustrating because much of this was preventable, but we are where we are, and as my grandma would say, you can’t cry over spilled milk.
Unfortunately, we are in a position where there are no good options. There are only bad options and worse options. It’s what happens sometimes when you are the superpower.
And I don’t know how this will all play out. Anyone who tells you they think they know what’s going to happen or what the best policies are, they are lying. They have no clue and there are so many unknowns about where this all leads.
We also need to recognize that while we live in the Information Age, where information is readily available, there is a lot that we don’t know and can’t verify. It’s actually bizarre. You would think that we would be bombarded with tons of images and video, but we’re not, and I can’t provide an explanation as to why.
It’s hard to disseminate what’s true and what’s not. You have tons of propaganda being pushed out there. People are allowing emotions to drive the debate, rather than taking a step back and thinking through policies, including all the unintended consequences of any policies we and other countries adopt.
And it’s my fear that soon we will begin to see an expansion of this war due to the emotion and the lack of reason.
So, today’s agenda is going to be an attempt to dispel some myths, talk about some policy options, as well as the consequences of those policies.
We have to be realistic about the times we are living through and what may be coming down the pike. I’ll also remind everyone that those who ignore history are doomed to repeat it. The one constant throughout mankind is that history repeats itself, and we learn nothing from the past.
Before I jump in, make sure to click the follow button for this podcast so you never miss an episode, and don’t forget to visit The P.A.S. Report website and sign up for the newsletter.
Awake, Not Woke
The Levels of Analysis
I’ve brought up the levels of analysis before and it’s worth bringing them up again. The Levels of Analysis are tools political scientists use to try and understand why nation-states, countries, behave the way they do, and to predict what they are likely to do. It’s really an art, not a science.
When we look at systems-level analysis, what we are witnessing today was largely predictable. Something happens and the nation-states react. The war in Ukraine was a slow-motion train wreck, and we can go back over a decade. But I want to quickly bring up the last two years. The coronavirus is a big catalyst for what we’re witnessing today, and I explained what a potential post coronavirus world looks like. In that analysis I did two years ago, I talked about how the chances for conflict would increase dramatically.
The coronavirus had a devastating effect on the global economy and individual economies. Countries infused an enormous amount of cash into their systems to prop up their economies. This infusion was the perfect vehicle to send inflation soaring. Then you factor in the lockdowns, and those in power deeming what’s essential and what’s not. This was the catalyst leading to the worldwide supply chain crunch and the shortages we see today.
If you look at every major conflict in modern times, the chances of conflict greatly increase during economic downturns, and this is no different.
Then you factor in the debacle of the Afghanistan withdrawal where after 20-years of war, trillions of dollars spent, 2,700 dead American soldiers, and thousands of soldiers severely injured and suffering from PTSD, the Taliban was able to regain control of the country in less than a week. It’s embarrassing. The sole superpower of the world didn’t learn a single lesson from history and understand why Afghanistan is nicknamed the graveyard of empires.
I am not saying we should have stayed in Afghanistan. After 20-years of war, it was time to leave, but there is not a single person that could argue with me that the withdrawal wasn’t a disaster. I would guarantee that had we left Afghanistan, and the Afghani government was stable and in power along with a competent Afghani military that could have prevented the Taliban from taking the country over, we would probably be having a much different conversation today.
But given our failures, not just in Afghanistan, but in places like Iraq as well, many countries have made the calculation that America is a dying power. While we still are a superpower, there is little doubt that America has been losing its power and influence around the world for a while now. Bringing it back to systems-level analysis, when we begin to see major power shifts around the world, it creates more instability within the global arena, which, in turn, increases the chances for conflict as other nation-states seek to expand their power and influence.
What we are witnessing today is that competition for power on the world stage, and countries are reacting. Unfortunately, when it comes to foreign policy, much of our policy has been driven by incompetent bureaucrats who are nothing more than ideologues pushing the same failed policies for the last 30-years from both Republican and Democrat administrations.
Between the global economy and the stability of big powers, it’s like the perfect storm.
Watch The Plot Against The President
State-Level Analysis
If we bring it down to state-level analysis, you constantly see countries being reactive. Waiting for something to happen and then reacting to whatever situation arises. State-level analysis looks at an individual country in an attempt to understand its behavior and predict what they are likely to do.
The economy plays the same role when looking at the state-level analysis. But you also have to look at the type of country a government has. There is a big difference in how authoritarian countries make decisions and those that have democratic principles infused in the system. Although, on a side note, it’s hard to distinguish between authoritarian countries and democratic countries over the last two years.
But my point is, when using state-level analysis, it is much easier for authoritarian countries to do what they want because it’s one or a handful of people making decisions, whereas, in countries such as ours, there are so many different groups that have a say and role within the system, from the people to legislative bodies to the press to businesses, etc.
It’s also important to understand the role geography plays, as well as a country’s history. When it comes to geography, Russia made this decision partly based on the fact that Ukraine is flat land. They wrongly thought that if they went into Ukraine, it would be a quick military victory and Ukrainian officials would quickly surrender. It appears that Russia miscalculated the resolve of the Ukrainians, and it’s why Russia has resorted to more barbaric tactics in recent days. And it appears it will only get worse.
If we look at Russian history. Russia has always played a prominent role in world affairs. However, following the collapse of the Soviets, Russia, especially Putin, feels that the West has little regard for Russia and Russian interests. Many within Putin’s inner circle still believe that Ukrainian land is really Russian territory. Many in that same circle also believe that the further NATO moves East, the bigger threat they pose to Russia, and they aren’t necessarily wrong.
Now before all the morons attack me as being a Russian sympathizer, understand the point I’m making. NATO is a military alliance that was created to prevent Soviet expansion. It’s an organization that existed to blunt Russian power. Following the collapse of the Soviet Union, we never articulated a new NATO mission or that NATO no longer exists as an opponent to Russia. It was our policy failures that continued to make Russian leadership paranoid about NATO expansion. In fact, while Russia has more in common with the West, it’s our policy failures that drove them to China. We used to have smart leaders. Nixon created a wedge between China and the Soviets. That’s when we used to be able to develop smart strategies that benefitted our strategic interests.
This does not justify Russia’s war in Ukraine in any way, but you have to understand the reasoning of your adversaries and enemies. Do you think America and Americans would tolerate Russian or Chinese military bases on the Mexican border or the Canadian border? How do you think that would fly?
While this doesn’t change the fact that Russia is the aggressor, and is now committing massive atrocities, recognize that there is much more than meets the eye. Failure to know the history leads to exactly what we witnessed in Afghanistan.
Finally, when it comes to state-level analysis, we have to recognize that America, just about every European country, and Russia are now in a crisis situation. Countries in a crisis situation are surprised by incidents. They feel threatened and believe they have little time to react. Unfortunately, when countries are in a crisis situation, the policies developed can make things far worse because the policies are created in an emergency, a vacuum, where there is little discussion. More importantly, these policies aren’t thought through and there may be significant unintended consequences.
Individual Level Analysis
Bringing it down to the microlevel, Putin has been, and always will be, a leader that exhibits authoritarian tendencies. It’s in his DNA. And listen, I’m constantly going after the left because of how illogical they are, but today, I have to go after some on the right.
I’m sick and tired of hearing that this is part of the plan. That Putin is actually the good guy warding off the New World Order. That Putin is fighting against the globalists, and those pushing for the Great Reset that really started this war.
First off, while those pushing for The Great Reset may try to exploit this war to push their agenda, the reality is Putin started this war because of his own ambitions. He, and he alone, is responsible. While we could have done things to prevent it, it does not absolve Putin of his actions and the sheer brutality now being unleashed.
If you’re trying to defend Putin, recognize what you’re defending. Look at who he is aligned with. Look at Venezuela, Syria, Iran, China. Are we now going to praise these nations as well? Are we going to say that these regimes, some of which are communist, all are totalitarian, are standing up to the New World Order and so they’re the good guys? Think about what you’re defending.
Do you think Putin gives a damn about the great reset? If this was about the New World Order or the Great Reset, why attack Ukraine? There are plenty of other countries that pose a far greater threat. Just look at how China uses the global order to its advantage. What country has gained the most power from globalization? What country has benefitted most?
Communist China uses the idea of the New World Order to empower itself and weaken America’s power and influence. Sadly, our policymakers are so dumb that they actually encourage this. It’s why we’ve become more like China rather than China becoming more like us.
But getting back to Putin, he does things for himself and what he believes is in Russia’s best interest. He’s a narcissist that believes he is here to restore Russia to its former glory. You look at the 20+ years he’s been in power, notice how his inner circle has gotten smaller and smaller. He’s become more isolated and insulated. That’s what normally happens with autocrats.
Although he may believe this war is in Russia’s interest, I believe he grossly miscalculated, and this decision will be his ultimate downfall. Hubris is a recurring theme throughout history, and I suspect it will play a role here. You can try to canonize Putin all you want, but he is the one that did this, and he is the one that raised the specter by threatening a potential nuclear response.
However, I also want to point out the obvious hypocrisy of all the frauds out there. The ones who believe they are the moral holy warriors. The public virtue signalers. Or as Thomas Sowell would call them, the anointed ones.
While Putin is a bad guy, who is worse, Putin or the Communist regime of China? Who is worse, Putin or Xi Jinping? Who has tortured and killed more innocent people, Russia or China? Who is responsible for more human rights abuses, Russia or China?
The fact is that you have a genocide going on in Communist China against Uyghurs and Christians, but very few seem to care. Uyghur birthrates are down nearly 60% in just a couple of years. Do you think that’s normal? Birth rates don’t just drop like that. It’s because of forced sterilizations and abortions. Essentially, the communist regime is systematically eliminating an entire culture, yet our public virtue signalers say nothing about it. In fact, they go out of their way to remain silent about it. Some even try to defend the communist regime.
Instead, the pathetic public virtue signalers will put the Ukrainian flag on their profile picture, and they will bravely and nobly tweet, #I stand with Ukraine. Then they will publicly pat themselves on the back as if they’re making some kind of difference.
It reminds me of the stupid bring back our girls’ hashtag campaign after Boko Haram kidnapped a couple of hundred girls forcing them into marriages and/or the sex slave trade. How many of these young women were saved from the stupid hashtag campaign? The stupidity out there can certainly be frustrating at times.
*PA Strategies, LLC. earns a commission when you make a purchase through any affiliate links on this website and within this post.
Real-Life Consequences
I don’t think people realize the significant real-life consequences of this conflict, but we are certainly starting to feel it and it appears it will certainly get worse before it gets better. Take gas prices. When the Biden administration came into office, the national average for gas was about $2.20. Prior to the war in Ukraine, prices were already skyrocketing due to inflation and the artificial printing of trillions of dollars.
Also, from President Biden’s first day in office, he has dramatically shifted our priorities when it comes to the production of oil. He nixed the Keystone Pipeline, cut drilling permits, and essentially cut productivity.
Consider that if you look at the number of barrels of oil the U.S. produces each day, in 2019, we were producing 1.22-million barrels of oil per day, on average, which lead us to become an oil exporter. In 2020, the productivity dropped because of the lockdowns and the dictatorial decrees, but we were still producing 1.12-million barrels of oil per day, on average, and maintained our oil exporter status.
In 2021, Biden’s first year in office, we only produced 1.11 barrels of oil per day, on average, and we became an oil importer again. (U.S. Energy Information Administration)
Now some of you may be thinking that that’s not much of a drop from 2020 to 2021, but understand, we were locked down for months in 2020. Most people were working remotely, factories were closed, schools were closed, and the roads were largely desolate. Also, understand that the number of barrels of oil is per day.
In 2021, as things were open in most states, we never ramped up oil production, and Russia became the 2nd largest exporter of oil to the United States. See, the Biden administration wants to appear as if they are going green and introducing green energy policies, but in reality, all the Biden administration did was cut supply as demand was increasing leading to higher prices. He also increased our dependency on foreign oil.
Simple logic, you will see higher prices when supply is low, and demand is high, and of course, the Biden administration and his media enablers are saying the Biden administration approved 30% more permits than the Trump administration. Again, this is nothing more than manipulation and lies.
The fact is that issuing oil and gas leases is different than issuing drilling permits. While the Biden administration has approved leases for oil and gas development, there are no guarantees that there is oil in these areas where the leases are granted. So, when a lease is issued, the companies must then explore the lands to determine whether there is oil and gas, and then if there is, they have to then develop plans to extract that oil/gas and apply for permits that allow them to extract the oil and gas. It’s a process that can take years.
Instead of the press cheerleading the Biden administration talking points, they should ask the Biden administration what is the number of those leases that have resulted in oil and gas being extracted from those lands? But they won’t.
Now you have the Biden administration announcing they’re going to be pushing to get Saudi Arabia, Venezuela, and maybe even Iran to produce more oil. I want you to think how insane this is. So, we are now saying we will once again be reliant on Middle Eastern oil? And how does that work in America’s interests?
Consider that we’ve spent over $150-million taxpayer dollars on democracy programs in order to try and oust the Maduro regime in the last five years, and these grants continue to be renewed even though Venezuela has actually become more authoritarian throughout this period. Not only are we wasting taxpayer money on these stupid democracy programs that aren’t working, now we are going to enrich the Maduro regime by encouraging them to produce more oil.
And don’t even get me started with Iran, an ally of Russia, and a country severely indebted to Russia. Basically, this administration will greenlight any nuclear deal, give more money to Iran to produce more oil. Iran will then turn around and fund terror operations throughout the Middle East, and they will also use that money to pay Russia for all the money they owe Russia. Huh? How does that make any sense?
They Want Higher Gas Prices
And they won’t because the elitist want the higher gas prices because they want to jam through their green agenda at the expense of ordinary Americans. They do this so they can feel good about themselves and pat themselves on the back because they believe they are noble eco-warriors.
Remember when Energy Secretary Granholm laughed at the high price of gas before the war in Ukraine. Remember when she said that if you drive an electric car, this wouldn’t be an issue.
Shut up peasants and don’t complain about the high gas prices. If you have a problem with high prices, go buy a Tesla or some other electric vehicle. See, these elitists are so out of touch. They think ordinary people living paycheck to paycheck have an extra $10, $15, $20-grand lying around to put a down payment on a new vehicle.
It’s easy for people making well over $500,000 a year to tell those making $50,000 a year to go buy a Tesla.
Even better is how when you point out the increased cost in your electric bill, they’ll respond telling you to add solar panels on your roof or install a geothermal system. Sure, because not only do you have the $20,000 to put a down payment on an electric vehicle, but they also want you to fork over between $40,000-$100,000 to put solar panels on your roof.
These people are ghouls. They are completely detached from reality. And the Democrats really need to wake up. These energy prices are going to rock the economy and cause an economic collapse. Consider that for every penny gas increases, that’s a billion dollars wiped from other parts of the economy every day.
What do you think is going to happen when Americans are paying $3, $4, $5,000 a year in increased food and energy costs? What aren’t they spending the money on? How many people will forego going to the movies or restaurants? Restaurants were already struggling because of the coronavirus restrictions. What about tourism? Do you think American families are going to be spending money on taking the family on a vacation? And so what happens to that industry?
See food and energy are necessities, meaning that all other sectors of the economy will suffer because people won’t be able to afford anything else. It’s ridiculous.
But understand that these people are all frauds, and if you think it through, you know exactly what I mean. They say they want America to go green and become environmentally friendly. They use that as the reason we can’t produce oil here. Yet, at the same time, they are encouraging other countries to produce more oil to meet the demand. It’s as if countries have their own independent environments. It’s some of the dumbest logic I’ve ever heard.
And as the economy continues to decline and hit a brick wall, do you think instability will decrease or increase? Do you think the chances for conflict will decrease or increase? It’s not that hard to figure out.
If History Repeats Itself, War May Be Inevitable
As always things are much more complicated than what most of the pundits, politicians and policymakers are saying. What’s going on with the war in Ukraine is horrible. I feel for the Ukrainian people. I even feel for the Russian people that have to live under the Putin regime and are being punished by having their personal economies wiped out.
The propaganda that’s being pushed is astounding, and this conflict is far more complicated than people realize. Sure, it is clear the war in Ukraine is unjust. Sure, Putin has used an enormous amount of lopsided force. Sure, the Ukrainian resistance is inspiring, and they are highly sympathetic. But let’s not pretend that Ukraine is the beacon of democracy and freedom. It’s not as clean as many think it is, and it’s easy to oversimplify the conflict.
But that doesn’t change the fact that millions are suffering. That millions of people have lost everything, and I feel for all those suffering, but rather than deescalate the situation, all actors involved keep antagonizing it.
Where do you think this goes? I am someone who believes this could have been prevented. I also believe that we should be deescalating the situation. An all-out war with Russia is a disaster and in no one’s interest. Unfortunately, we have a weak administration, and the Biden administration is in a bind. They only have bad options and worse options left. They waited too long to prevent this crisis, and now our policy options are extremely limited.
Moreover, if you think we aren’t already at war, think again. America and our European allies are heavily engaged in this conflict. Arms transfers are a form of unconventional warfare, and we’ve been supplying the Ukrainians with an enormous number of deadly weapons intended to kill Russian soldiers.
I can assure you that we are providing an enormous amount of intelligence to the Ukrainian military in another form of unconventional warfare. I can also assure you that this intelligence has resulted in a number of Russian troops dying.
We have placed an enormous number of sanctions on Russia, essentially destroying their economy. Basically, engaging in what anyone would call economic warfare.
What do you think is going to happen? Do you think that Russia isn’t going to respond at some point? Now I don’t know how they are going to respond, but if Putin continues to get boxed into a corner, he is going to lash out. Whether it’s through a kinetic military action or a cyber-attack is anyone’s guess, although, I suspect a cyber-attack is more likely. But how would it escalate from there?
There are so many unknowns with this conflict. We are witnessing elements of 20th-century style warfare where a more dominant country thinks it could just go into another country and take it over. But we are also witnessing 21st-century elements. The economic warfare. Corporations now engaging in the conflict directly by cutting all ties to Russia. Cyberwarfare. Drones. So, there are a lot of unknowns, and no one can honestly tell you how this will end.
Since the Biden administration declared that we wouldn’t be implementing a no-fly zone, there are many within the establishment class that is pushing to provide the Ukrainian military with fighter jets designed to generate an air campaign to decimate Russian ground forces. If that happens, do you think Russia is just going to say, “Well, they’re not really part of the war so we won’t target them? They just lent the fighter jets to Ukraine.”
Also, recognize many of those pundits you see in the media. The strategists and analysts. Realize that many of them serve on corporate boards where those corporations stand to make a lot of money off of any conflict. Just be aware that many of them have a vested interest in any conflict.
P.A.S. Report Listeners Get 10% Off at Design It Yourself Gift Baskets! Use Code: PAS
*PA Strategies, LLC. earns a small commission when you make a purchase through any affiliate links on this website and within this post.
If the War Expands, Be Prepared
When we look at the events leading up to World War II, we are seeing some of the same parallels to today. A flatlining economy, global instability, power struggles, etc. As Russia’s economy continues to be marginalized and facing collapse, what is Putin going to do? Remember, Japan launched the attack on Pearl Harbor partly due to the oil embargo we placed on them.
We are now calling for an oil embargo on Russia. Will Russia decide that they have no choice but to attack America or will China just buy all the Russian oil rendering the embargo irrelevant? I don’t have the answer to that.
And I don’t have the answer to what the right policies are. In my mind, I feel we are already heading toward something much bigger, and unfortunately there are a few ways out. Instead, we get further drawn into the conflict the longer this goes on.
Worst of all, the Biden administration isn’t preparing the American people for what’s about to come. If war does break out, be prepared. America should use decisive, destructive, and overwhelming force immediately. No more of the skeletal force that we send in. No more screwing around. If we get roped into this conflict, the only objective should be a decisive victory and an unconditional surrender. Yet, our military brass seems more intent on instilling woke doctrine into the soldiers rather than training them to be killers on a battlefield.
However, if this war does expand, it won’t be pretty. There will be an enormous amount of death, destruction, and devastation. We will witness many young Americans coming home in flag-draped coffins. Coming home with life-altering injuries, including PTSD.
Also, recognize that this has the potential to quickly spread beyond Europe. I will guarantee if we get into a war with Russia, China will immediately move on Taiwan because it would be their best opportunity to recapture the island. As China begins to expand in the Pacific, mainly with the East China and South China Sea Islands, what is going to be the response? Would Japan, Vietnam, the Philippines, and maybe even South Korea, declare war on China perceiving them as an existential threat? Maybe even Australia as they’ve been preparing for a potential conflict with China for the last few years.
Own Your FREEDOM, Your HEALTH, Your WELLNESS
Peace of mind in a box - keep a Medical Emergency Kit in your medicine cabinet
Get 10% off your order Use code PAS at checkout
What about North Korea? Will the King Jong regime see this as an opportunity to try and capture South Korea and unify the Korean Peninsula?
What about Iran? What do they do? Will they try to decapitate the Iraqi government, and take over Iraqi territory? Will the proxy war that Saudi Arabia and Iran have been fighting for the last fifteen years turn into a direct military confrontation?
There are so many potentials here, and there is no doubt that if this expands, pandora’s box can be opened.
Closing
Nobody really knows how this all plays out. However, I do know one thing. That no matter what happens, we are much better off in a world dominated by the United States as opposed to a world dominated by Putin’s Russia or Communist China.
For all our flaws and incompetent leadership, I still subscribe to the Reagan philosophy that America is the world’s last great hope, and it shows why we need to renew our commitment to the Constitution, federalism, and the core American philosophies of liberty and freedom. Get back to the idea of limited government and put America and the American people’s interests before others.
And if we are going to continue to preach that America is the last great hope, then we need to do away with the increasing authoritarianism we’ve witnessed throughout the so-called democracies of the Western World otherwise what’s the point. I don’t want to trade one authoritarian entity for another authoritarian entity.
We need a strong United States, and we don’t need an international order where we surrender our sovereignty to some intergovernmental entity. We faced the longest period of global peace in a world where the United States has the power. Sure, there were conflicts, but most conflicts in the last 40-years have been small scale in the grand scheme of things. We haven’t witnessed a major global conflict until now, and it’s no coincidence that it’s happening as we see a weakening America.
Don’t forget to click the follow button and share this episode with others. We are living through a major period of uncertainty, and people need to understand the ramifications of the decisions our policymakers are developing.
The P.A.S. Report wants to hear from you. Send your feedback to podcast@pasreport.com. The P.A.S. Report Podcast appreciates all ratings and reviews on any podcast platform that allow them, including Apple Podcast and Spotify.
Please share this episode with others.
Follow Nicholas Giordano
You must be logged in to post a comment.