Episode 67 Show Notes- Government Lacks Creativity: Here’s what real stimulus should look like
Episode Description
We are yet to see the full economic consequences of the coronavirus shutdown, but one thing is for sure, and it’s the inability of Congress to think creatively and introduce fresh ideas to foster an economic recovery. All we hear about is bailouts and throwing money at the problem. However, this does little to stimulate the economy and increases the fiscal irresponsibility throughout society. It’s time to think outside the box in order to survive an economic storm never seen before.
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Intro
Welcome to The P.A.S. Report Podcast. This is your host Nick Giordano and I hope you are having a good week.
Week 7 of the lockdown continues, and as states begin to reopen some parts of their economy, we have yet to witness the economic devastation caused by the abrupt shutdown of our economy.
Regardless of the political party, everyone knows that what we are about to witness economically will certainly provide challenges at all levels of government and within all sectors of our economy and society.
Unfortunately, Congress lacks any type of imagination. They regurgitate failed stimulus ideas of the past, and they push us further into debt highlighting just how irresponsible they are. What’s worse is the increased risk by creating an endless money supply that can lead to inflation down the road.
While no one has all the answers, I want this episode to focus on why the measures already are taken, and the ideas currently being debated are doomed to fail. More importantly, I want to focus on real solutions that can take our economy and country to the next level.
Before I jump into this episode, go to thepasreport.com to see the show notes, and sign up for The P.A.S. Report Newsletter.
The problems our economy will face
Before I get into what Congress has done and why it is doomed to fail, it is important to recognize the challenges our economy will face. We will examine all levels to truly understand how this is a problem that we have never seen before.
A recent forecast from JP Morgan highlights should send shivers down the spine of many. JP Morgan is foreseeing a 40% hit to our economic GDP. (Forbes) Just to put this in perspective, this is far greater than the GDP drop at the start of the Great Depression. In order to account for Gross Domestic Product, there are 4 components that make up our GDP. (The Balance)
- Personal Consumption/consumer spending on goods and services- 70%
- Business Investment- 18%
- Government Spending- 17%
- Net Exports- 5%
All of these categories are going to take an enormous hit and I’ll explain one by one.
Consumer spending
Consumer spending is by far the biggest category that will suffer. In times of economic crisis, Americans will always pull back on their spending, even those that have the money will spend less.
As of now, we have seen unemployment skyrocket, and we haven’t seen the peak yet. Since the lockdowns, I believe nearly 22 million Americans have lost their jobs, and the numbers will continue to get worse. JP Morgan now predicts an unemployment rate of 20%. (Forbes) The highest rate of unemployment we have ever seen is in 1933 at 24.9%. Throughout the 20th and 21st Century, the only times we saw double-digit unemployment numbers were from 1931-1940, 1982-1983 where it was at 10.1%, and in 2009/2010 where it was at 10%. (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics)
This isn’t rocket science. As more people join the ranks of unemployment, they will continue to spend less money on goods and services which will have a ripple effect throughout the country. As Americans begin to pull back their spending, many sectors of the economy will suffer, and many industries will be hit hard.
The retail sector was already in trouble. Retailers have been on the brink of bankruptcy for years, including, Macy’s, Bed, Bath, Beyond, JC Penny, and Sears/K-Mart, just to name a few. Nordstrom, a high-end retailer has already filed for bankruptcy. Many of these giant retailers may not survive the shutdown as they were unable to adapt to the changing markets before the shutdown. If these companies file for bankruptcy and begin closing down stores, that will further fuel the growth of unemployment. As they close up shop, what are the malls going to do? They already will see less traffic because people will remain fearful of going to places where there will be a lot of foot traffic, and without these giant retailers, people will go even less. This will damage the already struggling smaller businesses in these shopping malls, and many of them will be unable to survive.
The small business sector is also suffering. The small business sector accounts for 47.5% of all jobs in the United States. (SBA) As I’ve said before, many small businesses operate with heavy debt, and many will be unable to economically recover. Even if we open up today, how many people will continue to avoid places like restaurants, bars, movie theaters, kid activity places, bowling allies, etc? In fact, we are about to head into peak season where many small businesses generate a lot of revenue. However, due to the shutdowns, and the increasing unemployment rate, they will not be able to match previous years’ business.
Also, we have to factor in that even when states do begin to reopen their economy, there will undoubtedly be major restrictions in place. For one, many places of business may see a cut in their occupancy rates. If a restaurant or movie theater holds a 100-person capacity, that may be cut in half to 50. Essentially, this may be necessary, but we are automatically cutting 50% of their business out. How is a small business going to be able to rehire their staff if they are only doing half the business? If you employed 25 people in a restaurant to service 100 customers, you cannot hire back all 25 to service half the customers. In addition, how many small businesses will not be able to meet breakeven points because of the reduction?
As we begin to head into the warmer spring season and the summer, amusement parks are now ghost towns. We are now entering a time where amusement parks would normally have opened their doors already, but it looks like they will be closed. Even if we begin to reopen parts of the economy, these parks will remain shut down for several more months. Many of these parks are seasonal and only operate 4-5 months out of the year when the weather warms up. How can these parks survive if they remain closed for the peak season? How many carnivals will be or have been canceled? And this has a cascading effect. In many places, these carnivals raise money to support local volunteer fire departments, and other community needs.
The airline and hospitality industry have also been decimated. People are no longer planning big getaways. Businesses are no longer holding conferences. Stadiums will remain empty. What happens to all those businesses that provide support services? Those that repair the amusement park rides. Those that provide HVAC services. The vendors that provide food services and other goods. Those that provide transportation services to high profile events. What about the nearby dry cleaners, gas stations, barbershops, delis, etc. that employees would normally visit, but can’t now because they are unemployed?
All of this has a profound impact on consumer spending.
Business investment
As consumer spending declines, so does business investment for the most part. It doesn’t make much sense for large companies to make major purchases and expand operations when the business simply isn’t there. Like consumer spending, this has a cascading effect throughout the economy.
Take the collapse of the oil industry. While you have morons like AOC cheering on the collapse, make no mistake about it, this is a disaster. The oil industry employs millions of people, and contrary to popular thought, the industry does not just consist of BP or Exxon Mobile. Most are much smaller with higher levels of debt. If you own an oil company, you are not drilling right now because of the supplies on the market. You are also not making large industrial scale investments in new equipment. Without oil drilling, you don’t need trucks to transport the oil to the refineries, and the refineries will begin to economically suffer. And then how many other businesses support the oil industry including parts and repairs, CPAs and accountants, lawyers, etc.? What about all the nearby businesses that cropped up around those towns due to the oil industry like diners, doctors’ offices, retail outlets, etc.?
If businesses are not expanding operations, there is no need to borrow money from the banks. If banks are not lending money, the financial institutions suffer as well. In addition, how many corporations will default on their loans, leaving banks primarily responsible for the debt obligations?
Net exports
The next category is net exports. This is the total amount of exports minus the imports we take in. Our exports are going to decline as well because this is a worldwide global economic storm. Our largest trading partner is the European Union. They will certainly be buying less of our products as the people of Europe will be reducing their consumer spending as well. This will be true around the world.
If the world is broke, they can’t buy our products. It’s that simple.
Government Spending
The final category to discuss is government spending. While the federal government is increasing spending in the short-term to inject capital into the economy, they can’t do this forever. Particularly with a $24.7 trillion-dollar debt. Just think, one month ago the national debt was $23 trillion. People believe that the government can just inject an enormous amount of capital into the economy and that will lead to a V-shape recovery, meaning that the economy quickly declines, but will quickly rebound. I don’t see that happening. The government cannot keep throwing money at the problem without any major changes which I will get into in a few minutes.
Also, don’t forget government spending isn’t just from the federal government. State and local governments also spend more revenue during economic downturns. However, what happens when states were already in an economically desperate situation. As I’ve stated in a previous episode, prior to the coronavirus, if we combine every state, they have a debt of $1.1 trillion. If we combine all the local government debt it totals a whopping $2 trillion. (US Debt Clock)
How many economic models are factoring the states not collecting any meaningful revenue from sales taxes, permits, fees, fines, and other revenue-generating sources? States are a fiscal train wreck that have overspent for decades, and now many face the reality that major cuts are inevitable. Unfortunately, it’s a catch-22 situation. The last thing you want is governments to begin furloughing and laying off employees. You don’t want to increase the unemployment rate further. In addition, you don’t want the businesses and people who are contracted to do work for the government to lose their business. At the same time, if the government doesn’t begin to cut spending, they inch closer towards bankruptcy which is also catastrophic for a state and local governments and may not even be constitutional.
However, sooner or later, these state and local governments are going to have to make some really tough decisions.
Failed stimulus ideas
The federal government has spent an enormous amount of money just responding to the coronavirus crisis. Since February 1, they have spent over $6.4 billion dollars. Most of the spending was on medical and surgical equipment including PPE and test kits. Pharmaceuticals and medical research also make up a large portion of that spending as one would expect. This type of spending will surely continue as supplies continually need to be replenished, and the search for treatment has seemed elusive to put it mildly.
However, I want to focus on the stimulus. Let’s take a look at what the federal government has done thus far, and why Congress continues to promote failed stimulus ideas is beyond me. Congress continues to have any imagination whatsoever and has thrown nearly $3 trillion-dollars on economic stimulus to fight the economic downturn, and certainly, there will be more to come. This also doesn’t include the $4 trillion the Federal Reserve is injecting into the markets and the banking industry to prevent a complete collapse. (NPR)
Much of this money has been spent in an illogical way. As far as industries go, the federal government is the one who determines the winners and losers. The way Congress and the White House disperse the funds is not on the economic vitality of the companies in the long-term, it’s about a company’s needs now. The federal government is not taking a look at the potential that these companies were grossly mismanaged for years, and their downfall may be inevitable. Some of these companies may not be fit to survive, yet they are getting stimulus money anyway. While the bailouts to large-scale industries are meant to be paid back, what happens if these companies go bankrupt? How are they going to be paying back these loans? The easy answer is, they won’t, and taxpayers will be on the hook.
Another failed idea was the small business fund, called the Paycheck Protection Program, which is already out of money. Many large corporations were able to access this fund leaving little for the real small businesses that are desperate for cash. In addition, this money was meant for small businesses to retain their employees. However, because of the increase in unemployment benefits, there are workers that will make more on unemployment than they did when they were employed. I’ll talk about this more in a minute.
Companies need to spend 75% of the money they receive on payroll. They can then use the remaining 25% on rent, utilities, and other business costs. This program was not forward-looking. It didn’t take into account how long these businesses would be shut down. In addition, even when these businesses get to reopen, what will their customer base look like? It’s this uncertainty that will hurt small businesses. However, if these businesses do not comply, the grant then turns to a loan increasing the business’s debt burdens. This was a kick the can down the road program that didn’t take a lot into account. It also may simply delay the inevitable, and so what happens in a month or two from now when the businesses run out of this money? Will they have to potentially layoff their workers then?
Now let’s take a look at the unemployment benefits being offered. In New York State, you receive $600 based on the Congressional unemployment program, and this is on top of what you receive at the state level. So, a person in New York State, who normally makes $700 a week, will now be receiving $1,000 until the end of July. What incentive does that person have to get back into the workforce? Also, when small businesses want to comply with the Paycheck Protection Program, how many of the former employees will really come back if they are making more money on unemployment. That will cause the qualified small business grant to turn into a loan that the owner will have to pay back.
Secretary of Treasury, Steve Mnuchin, stated that he wasn’t happy with this part of the bill, but due to the emergency situation, they had to get the bill through. I would have rather had Congress take their time, and the systems to be updated to make sure people receive an amount equal to what they were making when they were working. This would have made far more sense.
Also, while this unemployment benefit certainly helps people meet some of their debt obligations, it will not improve the consumer spending numbers as people are more cautious about how much money they spend and what they are spending on.
Another failed idea was sending taxpayers a stimulus relief check. $1,200 per individual and $500 per child with a maximum amount of up to $3,400. The problem I have with this program is that this money should have gone to those who truly need it. People that are still working and making their full salary should not have received the money. Once again, no lack of thought from Congress. If you lost your job, had your pay or hours cut, I understand helping those people, but you didn’t need to expand the program to include all those who are still receiving their full pay and working.
Something that we need to keep in mind is it is not just the total cost of the stimulus package, we also have to factor in the debt we are adding, and the interest that has to be paid on that money. As I’ve said, we have spent nearly $3 trillion dollars. By the time we pay that debt off, it will probably equate to $4 trillion. Also, the more government spends, the greater chance of inflation. If the interest rates go up, it costs the government more to borrow money.
All around, the stimulus was a failure. Just take Harvard University as one of the many failures. Harvard received $7 million dollars in stimulus money. This is a University that has something like a $40 billion-dollar endowment. Harvard was publicly shamed, and they have since returned the money, but the fact that they even qualified for this funding is reprehensible.
We need to be smart and creative. This is not your normal economic downturn. I cannot find any example in the 20th century where the entire American economy came to a grinding halt, and I can’t find an example in the worldwide economy. In order to tackle the coming economic storm, we must think outside the box. We must understand that the federal government is going to have to be a vehicle of spending, but at the same time, we must also keep fiscal responsibility in mind. That’s why I made a few proposals several weeks ago.
Two of these programs are really important so I want to briefly mention them again.
Emergency Employment Fund
I came up with the idea to create an Emergency Employment Fund which should be set up immediately. This fund would assist qualified small businesses that were shut down. In addition, it can also assist businesses that have restrictions placed on them as we begin to reopen the economy. The money will be distributed from the Emergency Employment Fund to qualified small businesses to help that business meet payroll expenses. This would allow small businesses to retain their employees even if they are only doing half their normal business. This program should be used solely for payroll obligations, and potentially to reach breakeven points.
The beauty of this plan is that it shouldn’t cost the taxpayers any money, and it should not be funded using any taxpayer dollars. Since the government made the determination of what businesses are deemed essential and which ones must get shut down, the companies that remained open, and have seen a massive increase in their business due to a lack of any real competition, those are the ones that should fund the Emergency Employment Fund. I’m talking about companies like Amazon. In addition, companies have made billions of dollars with their emergency government contracts, particularly companies that produce PPE. Those companies should also have to give to this fund.
And it’s relatively easy to do. For those that have made a major profit off of the coronavirus, more than their normal profits would have been, they should have to contribute 25% of those profits to the Emergency Employment Fund. This is very doable and not that complex. I am not talking about instituting a 25% tax on these businesses. I am talking about taking 25% of anything above their normal profits. This still allows those companies to retain an enormous amount of the profit they earned during the coronavirus. I don’t think this is too much to ask considering they were lucky enough to be deemed essential.
Corporate Economic Emergency Fund
Another idea I came up with is the Corporate Economic Emergency Fund. It’s a ridiculous notion that corporations, making billions of dollars in profit year after year, cannot survive a two-month shutdown. The fact that these companies don’t have any reserves to weather an economic storm, and have to rely on taxpayer dollars, is a scam plain and simple. It’s a scam on you the taxpayer.
Congress needs to pass a law immediately requiring every mid to large-sized corporation to create a Corporate Economic Emergency Fund if they want to be eligible for any future bailouts. I’m a simple man and come up with simple concepts. Every year a corporation earns a profit, they should have to invest 10% of those profits in their Corporate Employment Emergency Fund. This is an account that would be controlled by the company, not the government.
Essentially, 90% of the profits can be distributed to the shareholders, and 10% would go to this fund. Once the fund has one-year of its operating budget, the company no longer has to make contributions. However, they must maintain enough in the fund to keep the company operating for one-year.
The companies would be allowed to access these funds during declared economic emergencies in order to sustain themselves to weather a major economic downturn. If the corporation accesses the Corporate Economic Emergency Fund for any reason other than a declared economic disaster, that money is taxed at a rate of 35%- 20% from the feds and 15% from the states. Those are the rates you can be taxed for accessing your 401(k)/IRA, and the companies should be no different.
The corporations will have a choice. They won’t be forced to open a Corporate Economic Emergency Fund. However, if they refuse to do this, they will not be eligible for any bailout in the future. For companies that do the responsible thing, once they exhaust the fund during a declared economic emergency, the government will provide taxpayer bailouts to the corporation.
This won’t help in the current crisis, but it will make corporations fiscally responsible going forward. In addition, I can guarantee that most shareholders would happily accept this idea because it would put the corporation in a much stronger position, and it protects the shareholder’s interest at the same time.
Massive Infrastructure Program
But there are other things we can do. I believe we can embark on the largest rebuilding infrastructure program that has ever been undertaken. Every four years, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers inspects our infrastructure and develops an infrastructure report card (American Society of Civil Engineers). Just so everyone is aware, the results aren’t pretty. Our infrastructure is based on 1950’s technology. It’s old, outdated, dilapidated, and falling apart. The average grade is a D+. That’s right. The strongest superpower the world has ever seen. The wealthiest superpower of the world has an infrastructure grade of D+. The Army Corps of Engineers inspects a wide variety of our infrastructure, including aviation, bridges, dams, drinking water, energy, hazardous waste, inland waterways, levees, ports, public parks and recreation, rail, roads, schools, solid waste, transit, and wastewater treatment facilities. Most of these categories receive a grade of D or D+. The only category getting a B is our railway system. Solid Waste and bridges get a C+.
Knowing that our infrastructure is outdated and growing obsolete, now would be the perfect time to embark on rebuilding our infrastructure. The Army Corps of Engineers estimated that it would cost roughly $4.59 trillion dollars over a ten-year period to completely rebuild our infrastructure. Why not fast track that. Now’s the time for Congress to begin discussing and debating this. If we are going to throw away money, at least this would be a worthy investment that can provide us with a roadmap to upgrade our infrastructure to the 21st century. It would improve the lives of every American. It would benefit every state, city, county, parish, town, and village, throughout the United States.
A program like this would prevent a repeat of the Flint Michigan water crisis where lead was being ingested by the population. We would be able to develop water treatment plants that can remove the excess amounts of nitrogen. We could build electrical grid systems where you would no longer see wide-scale power outages. 21st-century electrical grids are much more efficient, reduces power leakages, and even have the ability to repair itself. How about developing transportation hubs in the most traffic-congested cities making transportation much more efficient. And I’m not talking about high-speed rail that has proven to be a failure. I’m talking about completely reimagining the way we travel. Upgrade all of our air traffic control centers with next-generation technology and rebuild America’s crumbling airports. It’s all about thinking big.
With a massive program like this, we can take America to the next level, and over time, the investments may be able to pay for themselves. However, we need to start planning now. It’s not like Congress can pass the funding bill and the projects start tomorrow. However, if Congress passes a bill now, and we cut the regulatory red-tape, projects would be able to begin within the next six months. Plans already exist in numerous states for near term projects where the blueprints are already drawn up. These projects can start relatively quickly. This would create an enormous number of good-paying jobs, and the number of businesses that would be needed to support this effort would be enormous.
However, there are caveats with this program. Money designated for this program has to go to exactly where it’s intended. No bridges to nowhere. No Solyndra’s. No BS pet projects. Also, since state and local governments are better positioned to determine necessary projects in their jurisdictions, we must make sure they are responsible for any monies received. You have to put in safeguards. If a state wastes the money on a frivolous project that doesn’t qualify under the Army Corps of Engineers Infrastructure report, then the state and local government should be responsible for paying the money back and forfeit any money going forward. We also need to have an independent organization that works to ensure the projects qualify, and the money is being spent appropriately.
I don’t want another $888 billion-dollar stimulus package for shovel-ready jobs, only to find out those shovel-ready jobs don’t exist. The bill I’m talking about should not cost $400,000 for every job created.
Rebuilding inner cities
Our inner cities have been suffering a lack of investment, the right investments, for decades. Well, now is the time to improve the lives of those in the inner cities. Offer incentives to landlords to upgrade their residential buildings so that no resident has to worry about hot water or an elevator breaking down. Make the buildings capable of utilizing 21st-century technology. Improve safety conditions in these residential buildings. And if the landlord accepts these funds, they will not be able to raise the rent on the current tenants since the government is funding the cost to improve building conditions. This will create jobs in the local community. It will also improve the quality of life. If you live in a hellhole, you treat it like a hellhole.
Training for those in poverty
Also, let’s create real job training programs particularly in the inner-city areas. I’m talking about actual skills-based programs that allow people from lower socio-economic communities to learn a real skill that will propel them from poverty into the middle class. It’s time to break the perpetual poverty that has existed for several decades. These job training skills would be based on the needs of the United States and empower the individual. If we can create a meaningful nationwide job training program that allows people to escape the chains of poverty, it will save us an enormous amount of money in the long run.
This is an ambitious plan that seeks to end the generational poverty that has plagued the United States for the last 70-years. If we take this program seriously and we get competent people to run the program, we would do more in the War on Poverty in one-year than we did in the last 56 years when the War on Poverty was first announced in 1964.
Bring businesses back
While we embark on these aggressive programs that I’m bringing up, Congress must also develop a law that requires all businesses, that have overseas operations, to conduct supply line risk assessments. This would apply to any business that produces any type of necessary good, particularly life-saving products. Every company must certify that if something happens, they still would have the capability to manufacture and produce necessary goods for the United States.
These risk assessments are particularly important for life-saving products. We should not be manufacturing these necessary goods in countries that are hostile to the United States, especially when they can potentially weaponize these products and prevent them from being imported to the United States.
This law should also provide tax incentives in an effort to bring back manufacturing to the United States. After this whole episode, I think Americans would be willing to pay a little more for their products. I am not talking about every product. I am talking about those products that are necessary to sustain life. You want to build a refrigerator overseas, that’s fine. Find a friendly country to do it in, but there is no good reason that the United States does not manufacture its own pharmaceuticals and other life-sustaining products.
Education
Now is the time to rebuild our failing education systems by redesigning curriculums and providing students with an academic skill set, and a real-world skill set. States should start considering cost-cutting measures like consolidating districts and getting rid of most school boards. Sorry if you’re a school superintendent out there. You probably don’t like me very much right now, but schools and education have lost its way. A superintendent should not be making nearly as much as the President of the United States. This is a public service job, and public service jobs were never meant to get rich off of.
When I say redesigning curriculums, it’s important to focus on academics, but it’s also important to provide students with schools that they will use for the rest of their lives. So, I’m talking about courses like how to use the internet and social media responsibly in the 6th grade. Starting in 7th grade, bring back woodshop and home economics. Every student should be able to be self-sufficient. Every person should know how to make a basic meal. Every person should know some level of carpentry. Starting in the 8th grade, introduce courses about the importance of saving and investing. Teach children, before they start working, to live off 80% of the income they receive while saving and investing the other 20%. This will create an entire generation of fiscally responsible individuals who will be able to greatly contribute to the economy. They will have money to buy a car or put a down payment on a home. More importantly, they will be better able to handle economic downturns.
These are just some ideas of how we can begin to rebuild.
Closing
While these are just some creative solutions, we must begin to rethink how we move forward. I am under no illusion that our government won’t have to spend money during these difficult times. However, we must rethink the failed stimulus ideas of the past. We must go big. Not by throwing money at the problem, but by using taxpayer money in a smart way that pays dividends down the road.
And once this crisis passes, we must reevaluate all the budgets, including federal, state, and local budgets. We have to begin to get our fiscal house in order which means finding a way to cut spending.
There are tons of asinine programs that are inefficient and ineffective that could be eliminated with no one even noticing. But it goes deeper than that. We have to begin to ask what we expect of government. If we continue to place every burden on government, and require that they solve all the problems, we will spend ourselves into oblivion and the problems will persist.
Just consider that we have been debating the same issues for the last fifty years. Laws have been passed and money has been allocated, yet the problems still exist, and we are still debating them. We have to stop relying on the federal and state governments for everything. We have to reengage in our communities and realize that we have a role to play. We have to rebuild the notions of self-reliance and civic engagement.
The only way to create a more powerful United States going forward is that we, We the people, have to take ownership and cannot rely on government for every little thing. If we do, we bankrupt our kids’ futures.
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If you haven’t listened to Monday’s episode with Dave Rubin, check it out. It was a fun and interesting discussion. I have another great guest coming this Monday. Justin Danhof, from the National Center for Public Policy Research and The Director of the Free Enterprise Project, will be joining me to discuss free speech, censorship, and the threat of socially radical corporations.
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