Episode 16 Show Notes- Iran & The Drumbeat for War

Episode Description

As the drumbeat for war with Iran grows louder, Professor Giordano provides a stark warning about miscalculations. The proxy war between Saudi Arabia and Iran has been raging for the last 8 years, and the attack on Saudi oil fields may be the spark that ignites conflict. In this episode Professor Giordano provides analysis the advocacy news media fails to, and he encourages the policymakers to put politics aside and realize how quickly this situation can spiral out of control with potential to lead to WWIII.

Intro

Welcome everyone to another episode of The PAS Report Weekly Roundup Podcast. This is your host Nick Giordano.

Last week we took a break from exploring those who want to remake America and our institutions. It was 9/11, and I felt it was important for us to reflect on al-Qaeda, Islamic extremism, and the enemy we face. Unfortunately, I forgot to mention Dr. Shakil Afridi.

This man is an American hero and patriot. Dr. Afridi is a Pakistani doctor who helped our intel officials identify Osama bin Laden’s whereabouts and the Abbottabad complex. Since then, Dr. Afridi has been languishing in a Pakistani prison being subjected to the harshest of treatments. This is unacceptable. Him, and his family, should be in the United States, granted automatic citizenship, and live the good life with the $50 million reward we had for the lead up to the capture or killing of bin Laden.

Reports say that Dr. Afridi’s handlers offered to bring him and his immediate family to the U.S., but he decided not to come because his extended family would still be in Pakistan. Several weeks later, his cover was blown and he was imprisoned. He has since remained in jail with little help from the United States. We should be doing everything in our power to get Dr. Afridi to the United States. The fact that no one even talks about this man is disgusting. I can only hope President Trump and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo are doing whatever it takes to get this man, and his family, out of Pakistan. (Fox News)

As far as this week goes, I was going to continue to focus on the attempt by some to try and remake America and our intuitions, but over the weekend an event happened that is of major concern right now.

As always, if you want to see the show notes go to thepasreport.com.

Brazen attack on Saudi Oil Fields

This weekend, there was a brazen attack on Saudi oil fields. All the evidence suggests it was Iran. Initially the Houthi rebels of Yemen, backed by Iran, claimed responsibility. However, the weapons used, including drones and possibly cruise missiles, is well beyond the technology of the Houthi’s. In addition, reports now indicate that the attack was launched from southern Iran.

Proxy War between Iran and Saudi Arabia

Iran and Saudi Arabia have been engaged in a vicious proxy war over the last eight years over who will be the power of the Middle East. With the collapse of Egypt during the Arab Spring, a power vacuum opened up, and the civils wars that erupted throughout the region became the battlefield. Some argue that the proxy war began well before the Arab Spring and that it may be a civil war within Islam between the Sunni’s, led by Saudi Arabia, and the Shia’s, led by Iran.

Iran becoming much more aggressive over the years

Iran has become much more aggressive over the last decade. Tensions in the Persian Gulf have existed for decades. And the region as a whole has seen conflict since the beginning of recorded history.

But over the last ten years, Iran has been antagonizing the United States and testing our resolve. Whether it’s the IEDs that killed and injured thousands of American soldiers in Iraq, detaining American citizens that travel to Iran, capturing 10 Navy sailors, or shooting down our drone, Iran’s aggressiveness has been clear.

When Iran shot down an American drone over the summer, many were worried that President Trump would respond with massive force. Other were cheerleading the idea of seeking regime change in Iran.

In the end, President Trump gave Iran a warning, and it was a stroke of genius. A week later, President Trump would meet with NATO leaders where I am sure Iran was a major topic of discussion. Had President Trump conducted a military strike on Iran, surely many of the European allies would have harshly criticized the United States and President Trump. Instead, they offered praise, and this led to the further isolation of Iran.

The President even offered to speak with the Iranian president, but that offer was rebuffed.

Next moves

However, the world now watches and waits to see what the Saudi response will be. People may not realize just how significant this attack was. This attack was able to shut down 50% of Saudi Arabia’s oil fields. (CNBC) Think about that for a second. The lifeblood of the Saudi economy is oil, and within seconds 50% of their economy essentially went down.

This backs Saudi Arabia in a corner. The world operates under a realist perspective, and if Saudi Arabia does not respond, it will be viewed as being weak and further embolden Iran. Unfortunately, we don’t know what a response looks like, and we do not know what happens next. More importantly, what will be America’s role?

How America will be sucked into a conflict

Unfortunately, being the sole superpower, sometimes you are left with bad options and worse options. Many are saying that this is not America’s fight and letting Saudi Arabia and Iran figure it out. I wish it was that simple. It’s clear that the President does not want conflict, but he knows the world is watching how he reacts.

In addition, there are hawks on both sides of the aisle that have been pushing the idea of Iranian regime change for quite some time. Many of these people are the same ones that have consistently advanced foreign policies that made the United States weaker, rather than stronger.

It would be naïve to think that if war breaks out, America can sit on the sidelines, and won’t get involved or be impacted by any such conflict. I want to make it clear that I am not advocating for war with Iran. Coming from an emergency management and international relations background, it is my job to analyze and assess what is going on. It is my job to try and predict what countries are likely to do. It is also my job to look at all worst-case scenarios, and I fear that one scenario I developed in September 2015 may be coming to light.

Using my training in emergency management, homeland security and international relations

Understand that this is just one scenario, but it is the most devastating. As an emergency manager, I worked on many catastrophic planning projects. It was my job to think of the worst-case disasters, both natural and manmade, and develop plans around those disasters. The theory is if you plan and prepare for the worst, you will be ready for everything.

The international relations background in me was trained to use the Levels of Analysis. This tool allows Political Scientist to try to understand why countries and leaders make the decisions they do and to try and predict how nation-states will react. The idea is that international relations and world politics are a chess match. In order to develop sound policies, you must be able to anticipate the moves of your allies, adversaries, and enemies.

What many don’t realize is how easy it is for one nation to miscalculate the response of another nation and how that can trigger all-out war. History is replete with examples. Another assumption that people make is that leaders will react rationally when faced with a crisis. Finally, and most importantly, many underestimate the hunger and ambition for power that exists in the international community.

The following scenario that I developed in 2015 does not mean this will happen, but all of our planning should take into account that this can happen, and ways to prevent or mitigate it from happening. The situation can quickly spiral out of control. The global arena is a powder keg with the increasing potential to explode into the most significant conflict ever seen. All the ingredients for the perfect storm may be coming together, and over the last decade, we have seen major changes in the international system and the formation of new alliances.

Changes in the international system over the last decade

Shifting power balances & the stability of superpowers

One can argue that U.S. power and influence throughout the world has been in a period of decline since 2005. From 1985-2005, the United States’ power and influence was unmatched creating a period of relative peace and stability. However, as our power and influence declines, this creates a power vacuum and instability within the international system.

Power is a zero-sum game, and if one nation is losing power, another nation is gaining power. During this period of decline, we have witnessed Iran become much more aggressive in the Middle East, Russia becoming more aggressive in Eastern Europe, and China has become more aggressive in the Pacific.

Economics

Before any Great War, there is always a downturn in economic conditions. Some may argue that many countries never fully recovered from the 2007 global recession, and their economies are fragile. Media reports have been speculating on a coming global recession. Some countries like Russia will use the crumbling economy as a reason to justify conflict. Rather than lose domestic support due to a failing economy, country’s may lash out in conflict to foster nationalism to boost public opinion, blame others for their economic woes, and/or divert attention from the faltering economy. Europe, Iran, Russia, and China, are all having internal economic woes we should be paying attention to.

The beginning of war

So, in September of 2015, I developed a report about what the next major conflict will be and how it will morph across national boundaries like wildfire.

Middle East

As I stated before, Saudi Arabia has been engaged in a proxy war for the last several years, both vying for power to see who can dominate Middle Eastern politics. It is also not a secret that Saudi Arabia and Israel have been worrying about Iranian capabilities and their nuclear program. The first red flag was when Saudi Arabia invited the Israeli air force to tour its airbases sometime in 2013/2014. If you know the history between the two nations, this would seem as odd to the casual observer. For decades, Saudi Arabia had been criticizing Israel, questioning Israeli’s right to exist, and providing financial support to groups like Hamas and Islamic Jihad. So why would they invite the Israeli military to visit their military air bases? And in 2015, reports surfaced that Saudi Arabia has granted Israel access to its air space. (Times of Israel) The simple answer is Saudi Arabia has come to the realization it can live with Israel in its backyard, but it cannot live with a nuclear-armed Iran.

In my scenario, war begins when Saudi Arabia and Israel conduct a joint strike on Iran, specifically targeting its nuclear program, as they view Iran as growing increasingly dangerous. While the President does not want to see a major war break out in the Middle East, and while we have influence over their policies, nations are going to do what’s in their self-interests.

While the scenario I developed begins because of Iran’s nuclear program, perhaps the catalyst for war is the strike on the Saudi oil fields. Now that it is becoming increasingly clear that it was Iran, Saudi Arabia may strike back out of fear of being perceived as weak or an attempt to send a message to Iran not to conduct any more attacks.

However, any attack on Iran will likely provoke a response from Iran. While polling does not exist yet, I can safely assume the American people do not want another war in a Middle Eastern country. While Saudi Arabia may launch a counterstrike to retaliate against Iran, Iran will view any strike as ordered by the United States. Iran will target Saudi Arabia, Israel and U.S. interests including Naval vessels and military bases in the region. The second they hit a U.S. target, the United States will be forced into the war.

Those that argue Iran will not target the U.S. or the U.S. can destroy Iran

There are many that will criticize this notion saying that Iran knows that it cannot defeat the United States, so why would they do it. I said earlier; history is replete with examples of countries and leaders making miscalculations that trigger war.

Our military is far superior to Iran’s and ultimately, we would win any war with Iran, but it would be foolish to think that defeating Iran would be a simple task. First, Iran has been studying our military strategy for the last 40 years. They see that we no longer fight wars to win and the United States still suffers from the Vietnam syndrome. The Vietnam syndrome is that the U.S. public has an aversion to overseas military activities and troops dying in the field of battle. (Brookings) We base our battle plans on how many causalities the American people will accept rather than using overwhelming force to completely destroy and takeover a country, sack the resources, install a government, rebuild and leave.

Secondly, many argue that we can just conduct massive airstrikes and will not have to send U.S. soldiers on the battlefield. There are many problems with this idea, most notably, don’t you think Iran has been preparing for that strategy. That is the main reason they built their nuclear program so deep underground. This is not rocket science. In addition, as past engagements have proven, airstrikes alone cannot win a war. They may degrade an enemy’s capabilities, but in order to win, you need to do more.

Thirdly, some argue that the Iranian people will rise against the mullahs and the Ayatollah. While 2/3rds of the Iranian people are from a younger generation, are more moderate and have disdain for the mullahs, it does not mean they have the capabilities or means to overthrow the government. In addition, if the war starts with a response by Saudi Arabia, would the Iranian people view this as a Sunni/Shi’a conflict and rally around the mullahs? Remember, when we were told that we were going to be greeted as liberators in Iraq? How did that work out for us?

Do not underestimate the capabilities or resolve of the Iranian military. As I said, our military is far superior. At the same time, we are still in Iraq and Afghanistan. Iran is far more capable than both those countries, and without the right strategy, this will be another protracted war. In addition, Hezbollah cells exist throughout the United States, Latin America, and Europe. (Foreign Policy) They serve in mostly a fundraising capacity, but these cells will strike targets of interest in any conflict, and one can argue that Hezbollah has more capabilities than al-Qaeda and ISIS combined.

Finally, while I do believe the Ayatollah may be a rational individual, there are questions as to who is calling the shots. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards are the principal defenders of the Islamic Republic, and over the years, they have amassed an enormous amount of power and control over the Iranian political, economic, and military systems within Iran. The Revolutionary Guard is led by Qasem Soleimani, and former Revolutionary Guard Commanders hold several political positions throughout the government. (West Point Military Academy) Does Soleimani have radical belief in the end of days? Does he really believe he can challenge U.S. forces? Has he been laying the groundwork throughout the Middle East for the last decade for a confrontation? Don’t ever underestimate the ambitions of others, especially someone like Soleimani.

How this begins to morph into World War III

The alliances are clear. The United States, Saudi Arabia, Israel, Jordan, Egypt, UAE, Britain, France, Australia, Poland, and Canada on one side, and the other side consists of Iran, Iraq (ironically), Syria, Russia, China, North Korea, Cuba, and Venezuela.

Russia

Russia will certainly provide financial support, training, and military hardware to Iran. They will do this for two reasons- first, they seek to acquire more power and influence in the world. The only way to acquire that power is for the U.S. to lose power. Getting us bogged down in another Middle Eastern war would be a good way of doing that. Secondly, Iran owes Russia billions of dollars, and Russia has a lot of economic interests within Iran.

Vladimir Putin is a cunning world leader. He knows where he can push the boundaries, and he knows when to pull back. He is well aware that if the U.S. is engaged in a war with Iran, the U.S. would be able to do little to stop Russian aggression. In addition, Vladimir Putin’s domestic poll numbers have been falling as the economy continues to hit roadblocks.

This would present a great opportunity for Russia to invade and takeover the Ukraine and Georgia, and he will do so in the name of protecting Russian peoples abroad. Putin’s poll numbers would bounce back as stokes the flames of doing this in the name of mother Russia. He did this before with the Ukraine and Georgia before. Putin knows the U.S. is not going to war with Russia over those two countries. He knows that Europe cannot defend these countries because they have depleted and gutted entire military programs over the last several decades do to reliance on the U.S. military. The three most capable militaries in Europe, Britain, France and Poland, will only be able to setup a buffer preventing Putin from moving further west into Europe. The question becomes will he continue to take over countries in Eastern Europe like Estonia, Latvia, Finland and Lithuania. Would this be Putin’s attempt and last chance to restore the old Soviet Empire and return Russia to its past glories?

China, the Koreas & the Pacific

China will not seek to directly engage the United States military, but they would view war with Iran as a strategic opportunity. I can assure you the day after war breaks out, 10’s of thousands of Chinese soldiers will go into Hong Kong and put an end to the protests.

In addition, China will be able to achieve one of its long-term strategic goals of recapturing Taiwan. They will quickly move their military in a show of force, and the United States would be unable to defend Taiwan.

Furthermore, China will look to capture the South China Sea islands currently being disputed by multiple countries. Over the last several years, China has built manmade military islands as a way to quickly launch and seize control of the oil-rich islands. (South China Morning Post)

This will have the potential to spiral out of control, and as China continues to increase its aggression in an effort to control the Pacific, countries like Japan, South Korea, Philippines, and Vietnam may build an alliance and declare war on China to defend against China’s territorial expansion, and blunt a full takeover of the Pacific.

Kim Jong Un may also see this event as an opportunity to capture South Korea and create a unified Korean peninsula under Kim’s control. China would certainly aide North Korea in this effort.

South America

Our hemisphere would not be immune to conflict. Cuba and Venezuela would see this as an opportunity to crush Maduro’s opposition. As the Maduro regime begins to stamp out opposition, Columbia may begin to feel threatened and worry about Venezuela destabilizing Columbia. In addition, Maduro may seek to target Columbia due to Columbia’s support of the opposition.

What can we do to prevent this scenario from unfolding

Everybody should be paying attention to what happens next. The perfect storm is forming, and the drumbeat for war is growing louder. Hopefully, cooler heads prevail. Every American should be aware of the potential costs of conflict. While some of you may not like what I had to say, it is my duty to look at worst-case scenarios.

Part of America’s problems is that we fail to analyze risk and think outside the box. A groupthink mentality is prevalent throughout our society that since we have the most powerful military, other countries won’t be able to challenge us.

A war of this magnitude is not in the interest of any of the countries I mentioned, but the same could be said about WWI and WWII, yet they happened because leaders and commanders greatly miscalculated the threat.

Once again, The PAS Report will never shy away from or sugarcoat any issue, and this week is no different. If anyone tells you war with Iran will be easy, they are lying. If anyone tells you to let Saudi Arabia and Iran deal with it, and it’s not America’s problem, they are lying. The reality is we will be drawn into any action that gets taken. If anyone tells you that the United States can just launch airstrikes and the Iranian people would welcome an overthrow of the government, they are lying. This is a very complicated situation with only bad options and worse options.

By next week, we should get a good indication of what is likely to take place. Hopefully, President Trump is being briefed on all possible scenarios. Hopefully, the hawks are marginalized, and the President uses better judgment. Hopefully, if we are to engage militarily, we do it the Constitution way and seek authorization through Congress.

I want you to please share this episode with others because people need to hear the message. Our advocacy news media fails to provide any real analysis in their continued effort to dumb down our society. Also, remember that war is good business for media outlets. It’s good business for six companies considering only six companies control 90% of the media outlets.

I always appreciate the reviews on iTunes, so please leave a review on any platform you listen to this podcast on. As always if there is a topic or issue you would like me to focus on, send an email to podcast@pasreport.com.

Thank you for joining us, stay safe, and I’ll be back next week.

 

 

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