Episode 34 Show Notes- Is a War with Iran Inevitable?

 

 

Episode Description

The United States sent a strong message to Iran, and the rest of the world, by killing one of the world’s most prolific state sponsors of terrorism. As tensions continue to increase, the advocacy news media fails to use this moment to explore the destabilizing effect Iran has had on the Middle East, as well as to provide an honest analysis of what is at stake. Putting politics aside, Professor Giordano provides historical and political analysis to understand Iran since the fall of the Shah, how Iran became the number one state sponsor of terrorism and has been preparing for war for the last 15-years, and he wraps up the discussion by explaining his thoughts on whether war is likely. Please review and share this important episode.

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Intro

Welcome to another episode of The PAS Report Podcast. This is your host Nick Giordano.

Last week, President Trump made the decisive decision to target and kill Iran’s top general, Qassem Soleimani. Soleimani was the head of Iran’s elite Quds force, and some say he was only second to the Ayatollah.

This sent a message, not only to Iran but to the rest of the world.

In this episode, I give a brief historical analysis and explore how we got to this moment. I also want to focus on what led up to the targeting of Soleimani, and what happens next.

Before we get into this week’s topic, I interviewed Zuby on Monday, and he provided some great insight to his thoughts on race, identity politics, groupthink, and critical thinking so check it out.

As always, if you want to see the show notes go to thepasreport.com. Also, don’t forget to sign up for our newsletter.

Nick’s rant

In September, I did an episode on how a potential war with Iran can spiral out of control. I will get to my thoughts on Soleimani and President Trump’s decision, but before I get to that, it is important to understand how we got here in the first place. But first, I need to bring something up that’s really bothering me.

I find it truly amazing how many people are criticizing the decision and are outraged at the decision the President made. I have heard the President be called a warmonger and a war criminal. He has been called an authoritarian dictator and a devil. For God’s sake, you even had people like Rose McGowan apologizing to the Iranian government and asking Iran not to kill us.

These people are demented. Seriously. Iran is one of the biggest human rights abusers in the world. When will these people show this level of outrage and call out the Iranian government for their treatment of their own people, including throwing gay people from rooftops of buildings? When are these morons going to be outraged for the wholesale murder of innocent victims in the Middle East? When are they going to show outrage for Iran being the largest state sponsor of terrorism?

You ever notice how these individuals continually will bash the United States and take the side of brutal authoritarian dictatorships over the United States.

When I say these people are demented, I really mean it. Their minds are so warped by hatred that they can’t even see the weird position they put themselves in. They make it as if Iran is the innocent victim being bullied by the United States. They believe the United States is a state sponsor of terrorism. They believe the United States is responsible for all the world’s ills.

Sadly, these idiots do influence our youth and illustrate why there is such a lack of appreciation for the United States particularly amongst those between the ages of 16-24.

I truly believe that every American teenager should have to go overseas to a 3^rd world country for 3 months prior to getting their high school diploma. Maybe if they saw how the world really is as opposed to the bubbles they live in; maybe then would they have an appreciation for the United States. If they saw tremendous suffering, where every day is a fight for survival, maybe then they would realize how good they have it. If they saw how repressive regimes were, where torture, corruption, and beatings are the norm, maybe then they would know what real outrage should be and where it should be directed.

I am sick and tired of people constantly bashing the United States. You don’t like the President, that’s fine and that’s your choice. You disagree with the President’s policies, that’s fair game. You don’t think he should have targeted Soleimani, that’s your opinion and you are entitled to it. But do not try and create a moral equivalency. It makes you sound dumb and ignorant of facts. These people know little to nothing about Iran, its culture and its history.

Brief History

Now that I’ve gotten that off my chest, I want to turn to Iran and give you a crash course of what has transpired in the country, and the region over the last 40 years. If war does break out, it is important to know the country, particularly the leadership. You have to understand their logic.

I do have to include a disclaimer though, I can teach an entire semester on Iran alone, so this is going to just scratch the surface.

You have to look back to the 1979 Islamic Revolution to understand Iran. Prior to the Ayatollah, Iran was controlled by the Shah. The shah was a great ally to the United States, and he did what was asked. When the Middle Eastern countries put an oil embargo on the United States, Iran increased its output to sell oil to us. Iran was a wealthy country, and many considered it the United States of the Middle East.

However, the Shah was brutal to his own people. Throughout the 1960s and the 1970s, Iran’s economy expanded dramatically where land ownership increased to 78%, per capita income increased from $176 to $2,500, and their Gross Domestic Product growth averaged an increased rate of 7.8%, which is very high. (Iran,” The New Encyclopedia Britannica, vol. 21, 1992: 896-897)

However, many in the peasant class and the lower-middle class were feeling left behind and growing resentful towards the Shah’s policies. In addition, the Iranian government was going further and further into debt, and by the 1970s, Iran got hit with the inflation bug that was impacting much of the world at this time.

The Shah’s government was forced to cut spending, and slashed all government employees’ salaries, leading to even more resentment. The Shah, aware of the growing dissent, created a secret police force, with the assistance of the CIA and the Mossad, called SAVAK. SAVAK was initially created to counter the rising Islamic and Communist militants that were consistently criticizing the Shah and his modernization policies of the 1960s.

But as political unrest began to further materialize in the 1970s, the Shah unleashed SAVAK against his political opposition and those that criticized him. SVAK used brutal tactics and engaged in human rights abuses against his own people, including electric shock, whipping, beating, mutilation of body parts, extraction of teeth or nails, and pouring boiling water onto one’s body. (Mohsen M. Milani, 2^nd ed., The Making of Iran’s Islamic Revolution (Colorado: Westview Press, Inc., 1988) 62, 64, 79, and 83.)

The Shah, and the United States for that matter, were unable to fully comprehend the backlash that would soon occur. Protests were growing more violent in the late 1970s, and one man would soon rise up to become the face of the Islamic Revolution, Ayatollah Khomeini. Khomeini was a hardline Shia religious leader who would become the face of the 1979 Islamic Revolution and would take over the country.

Iran moves to a hardline religious dictatorship

With Ayatollah Khomeini leader of the Islamic revolution, he promoted the idea of Islamic isolation from the Western ways. He believed that Western ideals create material corruption. The most interesting part is that Shia’s used to shun politics. However, the Ayatollah created the belief that religion and politics are intertwined and cannot be separated out, and so the Islamic Republic begins.

Under the Ayatollah, Iran would now become a theology where the Shia interpretation of the Koran would become the law of the land. This interpretation will be based on the rulings by the guardian council and the Ayatollah would have the final say. While the Shah exiled Khomeini during his reign, Khomeini would preach in Turkey and Iraq. In fact, Khomeini had a strong influence in Iraq, and his influence can be felt there today.

With Khomeini at the helm of Iran, many Iranians believed new dawn had started. However, that would be short-lived as the Ayatollah proved to be every bit as brutal, if not more brutal, than the Shah.

Tensions with the United States started immediately under Khomeini. On November 4, 1979, Iranian militants stormed the U.S. embassy in Tehran where 70 Americans were taken, hostage. Iran’s relationship with the United States, and the international community, was now completely transformed. The United States would now be referred to as the great Satan. Islamic law would now reign supreme.

While the Ayatollah disbanded SAVAK, he created a new secret police force that would engage in the same type of torture for anyone deemed violating rigid Islamic laws. Stoning would be common practice, as would throwing gay people off the rooftops of buildings. Those that spoke out against the Islamic Republic would be thrown in prison and forced to suffer. Repression would increase.

Current conditions within Iran

Iran is once again ripe for revolution. The majority of the population is from a younger generation born after the 1979 Islamic Revolution. Many want closer ties with the United States. They are tired of the repression, and systematic abuses. They are tired of the corruption and the failed economy. They are tired of being international pariahs. However, the one ingredient they are lacking is a leader to rally and organize the masses. The protests and unrest are similar to what was seen leading up to the Shah’s overthrow. The brutality is similar, but no revolutionary figurehead has been able to emerge.

However, as the suffering of the Iranian people continues to increase, this may resolve itself in due time.

Iran is the real aggressor

For all those that want to portray the United States as the bully, and President Trump as the aggressor, please do your research. Over the last two decades, Iran has grown more and more aggressive throughout the region and the world. They are the largest state sponsors of terrorism and have provided arms, training, financing, and safe haven to numerous terror organizations throughout the world.

Support of Hezbollah

Hezbollah is a recognized terror organization that is even more powerful than al-Qaeda. They are organized, financed, trained, and capable. Hezbollah has been tied to numerous attacks in the region and on U.S. interests. They an Iranian proxy and responsible for the:

• 1982-1983 attack on Israel Tyre headquarters killing over 100 Israelis and over 50 Lebanese
• 1983 U.S. Embassy bombing in Beirut killing 58 Americans and Lebanese
• 1983 Beirut barracks bombing killing 241 Marines and 58 French soldiers serving as peacekeepers
• 1983 Kuwait bombings killing 6
• 1984 U.S. embassy bombing in East Beirut killing 24
• 1985 TWA flight 847 high jacking murdering one Navy sailor
• 1989 bombing attempt to assassinate Salman Rushdie
• 1992 Israeli Embassy bombing in Argentina killing 29
• 1994 Jewish community center bombing in Argentina killing 85
• 1994 AC Flight 901 killing 21 people
• 1996 Khobar Towers bombing, killing 19 U.S. service members
• Iran has deployed Hezbollah proxies throughout the world. Estimates have it that there are nearly 1,000 members of Hezbollah here in the United States, and over 10,000 in Europe. They operate mostly in a fundraising capacity. About 10 years ago, a Hezbollah ring was broken up smuggling cigarettes from the Carolinas to sell in New York. They would then send the profits overseas to fun operations. But make no mistakes about it, these individuals have certainly identified targets of interests within the United States, and can quickly become operational.

Support of al-Qaeda

• In one of the ultimate lessons of the enemy of my enemy is my friend, Iran has provided support to al-Qaeda throughout the years, particularly in the 1990s.
• This is interesting because of the Sunni/Shia divide, and how the Wahhabi/Salafist sect of the Sunni faith regard Shia Muslims as heretics.
• A federal court found that Iran has culpability in the 1998 U.S. Embassy bombings in Tanzania and Kenya, killing more than 200 people, stating that Iran provided al-Qaeda with the technical expertise.
• Another federal court found that Iran was complicit in the 2000 U.S. Cole Bombing, killing 17 U.S. sailors, by providing training and logistics to al-Qaeda.
• Prior to and following 9/11, members of al-Qaeda routinely passed through Iran’s territory. The 9/11 Commission report states that 8-10 of the 9/11 hijackers passed through Iran. (Foreign Affairs)
• After the U.S. injured Abu Musab Zarqawi on the battlefield of Afghanistan, he received safe passage from Afghanistan through Iran and into Iraq.
• Reports also state that Hamza bin Laden was in hiding in Iran for some time. Iran is a police state and knows everyone coming in and leaving its territory. To think that high-level al-Qaeda members would be able to get into Iran undetected is just ridiculous.
• Two Iranian intelligence defectors stated that Iran had known about the 9/11 attacks. However, I am not sure if that’s ever been verified. (NY Times)

 Other alleged activities

Iran is also an outspoken supporter of Hamas and Islamic Jihad and has supplied these terror organizations with arms, funding, and training. Iran has been accused of terrorist activity in Albania, Bahrain, India, Argentina, Israel, and throughout the Middle East. Iran captured 15 British sailors in 2007. They have arrested numerous Americans in Iran, subjecting them to brutal conditions.

In 2010, Iranians storm the British Embassy in Tehran. In 2012, Israeli ambassadors were being targeted, and in 2016, Iran targets American sailors. Throughout the nuclear negotiations, Iran would routinely conduct cyber attacks on the U.S. and would engage in provocative military maneuvers in the Persian Gulf harassing American service members. Iran plotted the assassination of the Saudi ambassador to the United States. They’ve been seizing cargo ships in the Gulf and attacked the Saudi oil fields.

People need to stop making it as if Iran just became aggressive following President Trump pulling out of the nuclear agreement. They have always been an aggressive country since the Islamic Revolution.

Iran’s footprint in Iraq

Following the invasion of Iraq in 2003, Iran was able to seize on the instability and provided Shia militias with numerous arms. The Quds force also integrated their soldiers and Hezbollah soldiers with these militias.

The justification for targeting Soleimani

The advocacy news media amazes me. They continually state that Iran has only killed 603 U.S. service members in Iraq. I have two problems with that. First is, why the hell are they using the word only? What is wrong with these people? Secondly, that number is wrong. They have killed over 1,000 soldiers with Iranian made IED’s. They injured thousands more. And when I say injured, I am talking about our young service members having limbs blown off, becoming severely disfigured, going blind or deaf, severe brain trauma, and other life-altering injuries.

So, when I hear people defending the Iranian regime, it pisses me off. Stop being ignorant and start dealing with facts. Stop comparing the U.S. with this evil regime. Stop justifying Iran’s actions by saying they were assisting in the fight against ISIS. Do you really believe they were fighting against ISIS to help the U.S. defeat this terror organization or do you think they were fighting against ISIS to expand their sphere of influence?

The Persian people are a great people who should be proud of their culture, but their regime is one of the worst in the world, and Soleimani was the mastermind behind setting up the networks throughout Iraq, and then spreading these networks throughout the region.

Under Soleimani, Iran has spread its terror influences in Lebanon, Syria, Yemen, Libya, and other countries.

Remember Soleimani was targeted in Iraq. He was not on a diplomatic mission. He was there to coordinate attacks on U.S. interests. We had every justification to take out Soleimani, and we did it on Iraqi soil, not Iranian.

I warned about Soleimani spreading his influence and terror networks in September, and he has been doing this since 2005.

Was this the appropriate response

Prior to Soleimani’s death, the U.S. response has been fairly muted. Even when Iran shot down a billion-dollar drone, President Trump showed restraint and did not respond. At some point, you have to respond with force in order to send a message this behavior won’t be tolerated.

For those complaining that the President has escalated the situation, which he did, so what? I just laid out just some of the attacks Iran has conducted or been a part of. So if you don’t like the President responding, at what point do you have to respond? How long or how many times should Iran get a free pass? Do we keep letting Iran get away with this crap because we’re scared of escalation? When does Iran get blamed for escalating with the increased attacks and aggression?

You don’t make policy based on a fear of outcomes. You take all outcomes into account and choose the policy that represents what is in the best interest of the United States. Sometimes those decisions carry risks, but they may be necessary risks.

The targeting of Soleimani was huge, and Iran certainly received the message. I believe the response was appropriate, but I would be lying if I said it didn’t carry risks. President Trump is willing to take risks, where other Presidents wouldn’t dare go. This risk can pay dividends, but that assumes that Iran acts rationally realizing they are in a lose-lose situation.

What worries me is not if Iran responds, but how do they respond. Does Iran grossly miscalculate triggering a potential war with the United States?

History is replete with examples of countries miscalculating and wars beginning.

Do we have anything to fear?

I’ve been listening to all these so-called experts talking about how they know what the outcome is going to be. They tell you they know what’s going to happen. But in reality, they are lying.

I won’t lie to you. I have no clue what’s going to happen. However, given my background in catastrophic planning, I am always prepared to look at worst-case scenarios and base my planning off those scenarios. When preparing for the worst-case scenario, you are prepared for anything.

My concern is not going to war with Iran. My fear is do we need another war in the Middle East wasting time, money and lives? Does the war have the potential to quickly spread beyond its borders? Will we fight the war the way it needs to be fought?

I don’t believe the American people are mentally prepared for war and the sacrifices that may be necessary. I worry about how we base battleplans on casualty counts and how we are still haunted by the Vietnam Syndrome.

I don’t believe that we are prepared for the possibility of this war spreading rapidly beyond its borders. Other countries may make serious miscalculations. It’s no secret that we have adversarial relationships with other countries like Russia, China, and North Korea. Those countries will do what’s in their own self-interests. Their foreign policy goal is to acquire more power and influence around the world. The only way for them to acquire that power and influence is for us to lose power and influence.

As we are distracted with Iran, China may see it’s in their self-interests to recapture Taiwan, one of their long-term strategic goals. They may begin to formally take over the South China Sea Islands provoking a response from Japan, Vietnam, and the Philippines.

Kim Jong Un of North Korea has said he has a surprise for the United States. If the U.S. is engaged in war with Iran, will he become bolder and more ambitious? Will he see this as his chance to create a unified Korean peninsula under his rule.

Will Russia decide to increase its sphere of influence in Eastern Europe pushing further into Ukraine and other countries knowing that there would be little to no response or pushback?

I am not a dove or a pacifist. I believe war is an essential component to diplomacy and foreign policy. I believe we should do what’s in our own best interests.

Closing

It is important that we prepare for all scenarios. If war is necessary, so be it. However, in order to prevent this conflict from morphing into a larger war, we must be prepared to fight to win.

This includes applying overwhelming and decisive force from the beginning. Don’t listen to those who say this can be done by air power alone. They are lying. If you want to fight in a war, we need to decimate their entire military and capabilities meaning destroying all airfields and taking out their air force. Destroy Iran’s naval capabilities, and send in ground forces to penetrate Iran’s underground network of military infrastructure including their nuclear program.

 

Be prepared to take military fatalities. While our military is far superior to Iran’s, Iran does have a capable military. They will also utilize unconventional war tactics as those have proven to give us trouble in the past. Part of the failures in Iraq and Afghanistan was due to the Vietnam Syndrome where we send in skeletal forces and base battleplans on how many fatalities the American people are willing to accept.

That’s no way to fight a war. We need to understand that our soldiers are trained to fight and die. That may sound cold and callous, but it’s the reality and if you don’t like it, the simple solution is don’t go to war.

Finally, layout S.M.A.R.T. objectives. Objectives that are Simple, Measurable, Attainable, Realistic, and Timely. Explain to the American people the importance of the mission, and why we need to go to war. The American people will support a war, if you show them why it is in our best interests.

Now, I hope the war doesn’t happen. I fear that we won’t fight the war correctly and we will get stuck in an endless pit just like previous engagements. Projecting American strength is important, but at what point do we recognize the lack of policy success over the last 40 years when it comes to the Middle East. Have all of our engagements made the Middle East more stable and peaceful? That’s a serious question that deserves a serious answer. How much time, money, and resources have been wasted?

I am much more worried about what’s happening in South and Latin America. If governments begin to collapse, it will have far more negative implications than anything in the Middle East. Our economy will be hurt, and we will see a flood of refugees like never before. If you think our Southern border is bad now, just wait.

The violence in places like Mexico is exploding, and the cartels are gaining more and more power. They are also responsible for how many American deaths because of the illegal narcotics they push up here.

If you don’t know what’s happening in South and Latin America, be sure to listen to the November 20^th episode I did, entitled- If You Think We Have Border Problems Now- Just Wait. This is a much more serious problem unfolding, and unfortunately, it is being virtually ignored by the advocacy news media, the politicians, and the so-called experts.

As always if there is a topic or issue you would like me to focus on, send an email to podcast@pasreport.com, and take a moment and share this episode with others. Don’t forget to write a review because that always helps with the podcast rankings.

Thank you for joining us, stay safe, and I’ll be back next week.

 

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