Episode 53 Show Notes- Politics, News Media, Coronavirus, and the 2020 Elections
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Episode Description
In this episode, Professor Giordano examines the changing dynamics in the 2020 elections. As the mainstream news media continues their endless coverage of the Coronavirus, it is clear, fear and panic have now set in. Are the fear and panic warranted, and will the economic downturn become a self-fulfilling prophecy? With all the attention on Coronavirus, this has no doubt become the Coronavirus election and has reshaped the 2020 elections. The only way to find out is by listening to The P.A.S. Report.
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Intro
Welcome to The P.A.S. Report Podcast. This is your host Nick Giordano and I hope you are having a good week.
Before I dive into this week’s topic, I just want to say, it was an honor to speak to Dr. Victor Davis Hanson the other day. If you haven’t listened to that episode, be sure you do. He is an intellectual giant and someone whose work I have long admired. He provided some great insights so check out that episode.
Also, go to thepasreport.com to see the show notes of that episode, and you can purchase Dr. Hanson’s book through Amazon from the website. While there, don’t forget to sign up for The P.A.S. Report newsletter.
Fear, Panic, and the coming Economic Downturn
I don’t want to spend a lot of time talking about the Coronavirus because I did that last week, but I do want to examine the ensuing fear and panic resulting from the endless media coverage. I also want to look at the economy, and whether America’s economy will be able to withstand a coming economic downturn.
The media continues to be negligent when it comes to reporting the facts, and as I stated last week, I get it. The media is in business to make money, and so if they continue to put out doom and gloom, viewers will continue to tune in, especially when there are so many unknowns. The higher the ratings, the more money these outlets make.
However, the media is also being largely irresponsible with their coverage. We are supposed to trust the media, but how can we do that when they continue to overhype the threat. For all the morons out there, I am not saying that the Coronavirus isn’t a problem or a threat. What I am saying though if you watch the coverage, there is not much new information out there, and the information we do have doesn’t match the hype. In addition to the lack of facts being reported, the injection of these people’s opinions doesn’t help the situation.
I know I’m not breaking any major news by saying that the press is largely biased, but the fact that they cannot provide an ounce of fairness to their coverage is truly astounding.
Everything comes down to politics, and the media try to break everything down as black and white. That it’s either the Coronavirus is going to wipe out humanity, and the President and his administration are incapable of handling the threat. They argue that if you deny this, you are denying science, and downplaying the threat because you support the President.
Reality is most issues actually have a lot of gray areas, and they should not be oversimplified into a 3.5-minute segment where people just espouse political opinions.
I want to look at a couple of aspects of the coverage.
You cannot compare to the regular flu
I have heard endless times that you cannot compare the Coronavirus numbers to the regular flu numbers, and if you try to, you are labeled a science denier. However, think to yourself, what would happen if the media reported the flu with the same fervor that they are reporting Coronavirus? Every year in emergency management and public health officials activate during severe flu seasons. The media never reports on these activations. They don’t go wall-to-wall coverage. These officials do their jobs, do them well, and know how to handle situations. These people are so dumb, and I don’t know why they have a platform. No one is saying they are exactly the same, but comparisons equal perspective.
Also, using my emergency management background, what the hell do you think all-hazards planning is about? Do you think we have a different pandemic plan for every potential virus or bacterial infection that can possibly exist? No matter what public health crisis we face, the plans are the same, and you remain flexible and adjust accordingly during any outbreak.
Look at natural disasters. We constantly compare damage from one natural disaster to another. A flood is different than a wildfire, but both are destructive forces. After disasters, we will conduct an after-action review and make recommendations on improving preparedness, response and recovery activities. We then incorporate these improvements into the all-hazards plans that exist.
Coronavirus
To be clear, it is fair and accurate to compare the Coronavirus to other viruses. I’ve been told that this is deadlier than the flu virus, and that’s why it’s not a fair comparison. This is a bunch of BS that’s being fed to you by people who like to hear themselves talk and believe they are smarter than everyone else.
They are claiming that the mortality rate is about 3.5% compared with normal influenza which has a mortality rate of under 1% usually. They say that if you dispute this number, you are denying science.
They get the 3.5% mortality rate by taking the known number of cases and verified number of deaths. As of this recording, there are 113,672 reported cases, in 110 countries, resulting in 4,012 deaths. (WHO) Basically, they are finding the percentage of deaths against the reported cases.
Their argument is extremely weak and misleading, and the mortality rate of the Coronavirus may be on par with the normal influence, and it may even be less.
How can I possibly know that? Simple, because of the data I’m seeing. First, the Coronavirus symptoms for most people will be mild. According to John Hopkins, 80% will have mild symptoms. How many people will feel a little under the weather, but don’t go to the doctor thinking it’s simply a regular cold. How many cases are not being reported because of the mild effects? If individuals have the Coronavirus but don’t get a diagnosis, they are not included in confirmed cases. I can guarantee there are tens of thousands of people with the virus that haven’t been diagnosed, and many may never be diagnosed if their symptoms are that mild.
There are many public health officials that do believe that when all is said and done, the Coronavirus will have a mortality rate of 1% or under.
Another issue is the median age of those who have died by the virus. The average age is 80, which tells me that this is a particular danger for older Americans. It makes sense to lock down nursing homes, assisted living facilities, and hospitals. It makes sense for anyone over the age of 60 to take extra precautions, and for families to plan properly.
This virus is especially dangerous to those with underlying health conditions and compromised immune systems. But like I said last week, that doesn’t raise any red flags to me. Anyone with these conditions needs to be careful right now and do what is in their best interests. With any kind of outbreak, the really old, the really young, and those with compromised immune systems or preexisting conditions, are the ones that are at most risk. As I said last week, if 20 or 30-year old’s were dying, the sirens would be going off.
What I do find interesting is that 89% of the COVID cases are in 30-79-year old’s. Only .9% are kids younger than the age of 15. Why are younger kids able to potentially ward off the virus compared to older people, especially those under the age of 11 whose immune systems aren’t fully developed. Certainly, medical experts need to figure that out.
Medical experts also need to figure out if once you get the virus, does the body build up an immunity to it, or will you be susceptible to contract the Coronavirus again? This question is critical and can alter the way we respond to the Coronavirus. Unfortunately, it will take a couple of months to get the answer to that.
Expect the number of reported cases to increase
Unfortunately, we are a reactive society. There are many who want to contain the virus, but I believe the containment ship sailed. Since the symptoms can be very mild, there is an enormous amount of unreported cases. In addition, because we are just ramping up testing, I expect the number of reported cases to skyrocket.
Do not panic when you see the number of reported cases jump from hundreds to potentially thousands. We are now distributing test kits throughout the country.
While there are some who want to criticize the delay in test kits, they don’t realize how difficult it is to develop rapid tests. Take the regular flu tests, the CDC reports that flu tests accuracy range from 50-70%. (CBS News) This leaves a large a 30-50% chance of a false positive or false negative.
We first how to get the strain here to develop test methods. There are some that will point to South Korea, and say they are testing thousands of people a day. That’s a lie. They are swabbing thousands a day. Those swabs are then sent to labs and the results can be a few days.
And part of the problem is that we are reactive. So, when someone does test positive, it is too late. We will then tell those who were in contact with that person to do a voluntary quarantine, but how long were those people going about their daily life potentially infecting other people?
Economic downturn
What fears me is I have no doubt we will see an economic downturn, and nobody is really examining the cascading effects throughout the society. I want to use a sporting event as an example. People are now discussing whether we should ban fans from attending sporting events. What happens to all those people who work at these events serving as custodial staff, selling hotdogs, beer, and soda, etc.?
If there are no fans, there is no point to keep these people on the payroll. Also, the arenas will not be ordering food, beer, soda, and other supplies. What happens to all the vendors that support an arena from food services to carpenters to plumbers? How many of these businesses will end up going out of business? What about the surrounding parking garages, bars, and restaurant establishments? If they don’t have customers, how many of them will be unable to weather the storm? You see how quickly this can have a cascading effect. We are not just talking about cruise lines or airlines. We are talking about nearly all sectors of the economy that will be impacting.
Companies and businesses may also face a shortage of employees, and so they should be preparing Continuity of Operations plans to ensure they can weather the coming economic storm. Companies should establish redundancy and begin to plan to see potential customer declines for the next four weeks.
Out of all economies in the world, ours is the strongest, and if any economy can overcome this, it would be the United States.
What should the government be doing?
I am not an economist and I readily admit, I do not know what government should be doing in order to try and limit the economic damage. What I do know is what the government should be focusing on their public health response efforts. The government should be preparing for what happens if first responders and critical healthcare workers begin to get the virus and have to go into quarantine. They should be planning for what happens when we begin to see a medical surge and a shortage of beds at hospitals, particularly in intensive care units. The government should order the constant cleaning of major facilities especially public transportation.
Sadly, because of our dependency on government, everyone tends to believe that the government has the ability to instantly make this virus disappear. It doesn’t work that way. Government can only manage the response to the virus.
Coronavirus & how it impacts the 2020 elections
I believe that this may be the defining moment of the 2020 elections. How the President manages this crisis will determine if he gets another four years in office. Unfortunately, the President has a media hellbent on constantly criticizing every move he makes. There is nothing the president can do that would satisfy the press.
In times of crisis, we want a President that reassures us that everything is going to be okay. The President has come out and tried to calm the nation. The President has stated that we will get through this. Because of the tone, the President is taking, the press is accusing him of downplaying the virus and the potential threat the virus poses.
Imagine if the President came out and said that everyone should stay indoors. That many people will die. That this virus is so serious that we need to take any and all precautions. Wouldn’t the press accuse him of fearmongering? They would accuse the President of causing unnecessary panic. This is why I can’t stand so many people in the media. Imagine the President decided to activate the military to handle quarantines throughout U.S. cities and towns. They would be screaming that the President is trying to usurp power and that the President will declare himself a dictator.
Another thing working against the President is the current political climate where no one wants to work together or compromise on the issues. I can understand Democrats exploiting the situation and using this crisis against President Trump. It may be in poor taste, but it is smart politics and if I were a Democrat advisor, I would be advising that. However, Democrats better be careful because if they do constantly make partisan attacks on the President, it could backfire. While he is seen as trying to manage the crisis, and lead the nation during a difficult period, the optics will hurt Democrats if they reject everything the President is requesting and all they do is criticize the President.
Democrat Presidential Candidates
As of this recording, I do not know the results of the primaries today, but if Bernie Sanders doesn’t win Washington and Michigan, he is effectively done. There would be no viable path forward for him, and he will not be able to make a sound argument of why he should remain in the race.
If Biden wins all the primaries, he will be the presumptive nominee barring some major health issues which are always possible.
Closing
But if Biden does win, I don’t think it will really matter. I think everything will hinge on how Americans perceive the President’s response to the Coronavirus. In fact, if Biden wins the primaries today, you’re not going to see him that often between now and the convention. Sure, he will make a public appearance here and there, but he will not be holding rallies and speaking because the puppet masters behind the scenes want to limit the gaffes. The more Biden speaks, the more questions will be raised about his health, and that’s never a good thing.
If I was advising the President, I would tell him to hold press conferences each day to speak directly to the people and use it as a way to sidestep a press that hates you. The President and the task force need to be responsive to the public’s need for accurate information.
Make sure the public sees you are on top of the situation. Hold daily meetings with your task force and have them televised. Do the meetings seven days a week until the threat passes. Pay attention to optics and don’t play golf because it will give your opponents an avenue of attack regardless if it’s fair or not.
Make sure you put the experts forward to speak about what actions are being taken to limit the Coronavirus’s potential impacts.
Be proactive with the states, and make sure you are speaking to the governors regularly. Make sure that the Coronavirus task force is responsive to the state’s needs. Take Governor Gavin Newsome. Certainly not a Trump fan, but he has praised the President and the task force for being responsive to every request California has made. It’s things like that that undercut the attacks from your political opposition.
This has now become the Coronavirus election and it’s all about how Americans perceive the President is handling this situation.
As always if there is a topic or issue you would like me to focus on, send an email to podcast@pasreport.com.
I just want to thank all the listeners out there. Many of you were happy that I put out the bonus episode on Friday, and I’m glad you enjoyed it. Also, if you haven’t listened to the interview with Dr. Hanson, I suggest you do, and remember, you can go to our website click on the show notes, and you can directly link to purchase his new book The Case for Trump.
Thank you for joining us, stay safe, and I’ll be back next week.
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