Episode 75 Show Notes- The 2020 Election, Mail-in-Voting, Ballot Harvesting, & Voter ID

 

Episode Description

As we inch closer to the 2020 Election, talk about Mail-in-Voting is heating up. Voting by mail presents unique challenges to the election system, and it raises a number of questions regarding election security and integrity. Several states have already adopted some form of Mail-in-voting for this election cycle, with many more that may do so. Professor Giordano will breakdown the concept of Mail-in-Voting and whether the concerns of fraud are real or overblown.

 
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Intro

Welcome to another episode of The P.A.S. Report Podcast. This is your host Nick Giordano and I hope you are having a good week.

I hope you enjoyed your Memorial Day weekend, and I hope you had the opportunity to get out a little bit and have some semblance of normalcy. As many states begin to reopen, hopefully, the number of Coronavirus cases continues to fall.

Thinking of the Coronavirus, I have several major takeaways. The first realization is how unprepared we were. We have to do better going forward and we need to reevaluate our approach to responding to a pandemic.

The second observation is how much power governors have, and how inept state legislatures are. State legislatures must take their power back as a coequal branch of government, and they need to put in measures to actually use the checks they were empowered to have.

Thirdly, the pandemic reinforced my contention that government is inefficient and ineffective. Then you have dumb people in charge and making dumb decisions. Whether it’s the stimulus packages or what’s been deemed essential vs. nonessential, it’s clear that some of our officials, both elected and appointed, are completely clueless on how to run anything.

I wish these officials were honest from the start and just said that they didn’t know what they were dealing with and so we need to take certain measures until we figure it out. Instead, the loudest voices of the mob prevailed, and many of these officials were wrong several times. We are constantly told to listen to the experts. We are constantly told that they know what they are doing. But this was a new virus, and so saying I don’t know is okay.

That’s the exact response I give when students ask me a question that I don’t know the answer to. These officials should start doing the same. How much trust has been lost because of all the conflicting and inaccurate information? Don’t wear masks, wear masks, don’t wear masks for too long because it can cause other health conditions. The virus is easily transmittable on surfaces. Wait, it’s not easily transmittable from surfaces. More damage has been done, and more will now distrust the institutions of government as a result, which is never a good thing especially considering that we already live in a highly polarized environment.

Finally, and perhaps most disturbingly, was how quickly we were willing to allow government to restrict our freedoms and prevent us from exercising our natural rights and God-given liberties with little to no questions or pushback. Some still believe we should be in lockdown, and some believe that government should have ultimate authority when it comes to a crisis. This is concerning on a number of levels. It’s not to say that some of the measures weren’t effective. Some were very effective. However, the fact that so many are willing to give up so much for the illusion of safety and security is an issue to me.

I will continue to monitor the Coronavirus and bring you any important information as necessary, but I do want to begin to move away from the constant focus of the pandemic. While everything will be related to the pandemic for quite some time, including today’s episode, there are a lot of other important stories receiving little attention.

Today, I want to talk about the idea of mail-in-voting and the 2020 elections. We are seeing a big push for this idea, and several states have already adopted the concept. Obviously, this push is directly related to the coronavirus, but make no mistake about it, there has been a push to change the voting system for the last several years.

So, I’m going to focus on this. There are some who are very concerned about the idea of mail-in voting, fraud, and the integrity of our elections. Are these fears warranted or are they overblown?

Before I get into the analysis, go to thepasreport.com to see the show notes, and sign up for The P.A.S. Report Newsletter.

Turnout

When examining the greatness of America, one of the hallmarks of this Republic is our scope of participation in the political process. Every person in America has a chance to participate in the American political process. On the other hand, our depth of participation is abysmal. Many Americans are disengaged from the political process and have tuned out politics.

Many who have disengaged believe they cannot foster change, or their vote doesn’t matter. Others have disengaged because they believe politics are corrupt and that the political parties aren’t looking out for the interests of ordinary Americans.

If I look at the last ten presidential elections, turnout has held steady and averages about 53.5%. It doesn’t deviate all that much. Sometimes slightly higher, other times lower. During midterm election cycles, turnout dips with an average turnout of nearly ten points lower at 44%. When we look at local elections, the turnout is horribly low and hovers between 10-20%.   (U.S. Census)

Election Integrity

We certainly have a participation problem here in the United States. But we also have to discuss the integrity of elections. For the last three years we have been hearing people yelling about the integrity of elections. Remember, the survival of the republic depends on the sanctity of our elections. Remember, Russia’s involvement was akin to a 21^st century Pearl Harbor and a Declaration of War. That’s their words, not mine.

For any country that has free and fair elections, the integrity of the elections is always important. People need to have faith that their vote matters and they need to have confidence that a system isn’t rigged.

Coronavirus and the impact on our elections

Because of the coronavirus, there are many who are clamoring to develop a vote-by-mail system and have it up and running for the November 2020 elections. When it comes to mail-in-voting, the Republicans say it’s a system that’s ripe for abuse. While Democrats say it’s the only way to ensure safety and that voter fraud doesn’t exist. I’ll get into my thoughts on mail-in-voting in a few, but I want to talk about voter fraud first.

Voter Fraud

So, who’s right? Well, if you listen to the media, and many on the far left, you will hear that voter fraud doesn’t exist. You will hear that fraud doesn’t occur within our elections and it’s infinitesimal. In fact, with much of the research I have done from a variety of sources, they say voter fraud is about .0000044%. (PBS)

Here’s the thing that no one will tell you- it’s impossible to know how much fraud and abuse occur within the system, but it is something that we should certainly watch for and try to get an accurate accounting of. Also, they try to get cute with terminology. They label voter fraud as individuals themselves. Fraud committed by officials, political operatives, special interest groups, and campaign workers falls under the definition of election fraud. (Princeton) Yet, try typing in a search on election fraud and only voter fraud comes up. I lump them into one because both are a fraud on our electoral process and are a danger to the integrity of elections.

When any of these idiots dismiss voter fraud, it proves that they could care less about the integrity of elections. They don’t care about the sanctity of the election. They may say they care about the sanctity of elections when they lose, but they want power, and that’s ultimately what they care about. And remember, voter fraud is not a Democrat or Republican issue. Anyone can commit fraud in pursuit of power.

Many of the major models of voter fraud are incomplete and based on faulty premises. What you will mostly hear about are the studies that take the number of prosecutions and convictions and compare that with the number of people who turn out to vote. Once again, this is a simple manipulation to perpetuate a myth that voter fraud never happens.

This is a BS way to examine voter fraud and it tells me that these researchers are either lazy or they are just being deceptive. Why do I say that? Because the real answer is that we have no clue how much voter fraud takes place, and what impact it may have on an election.

First, I’ll just take their simple premise using their own numbers. They argue that 44 convictions out of 1 billion ballots cast equals .0000044% of voter fraud. Of course, there is very little data as to what led them to this conclusion.

Basically, they take one person/one vote mindset. Well that assumes the one person convicted only tampered with one ballot. Well, in a little I will get to a case where one person may have been responsible for manipulating up to 1,000 votes.

Also, while the left is right that we have seen very little in the way of prosecutions and convictions of voter fraud, well, you have to find the fraud first. Let’s face it, those that commit fraud aren’t just walking into a police station admitting their crime. They want to get away with it. And we do not just start investigations without any accusations or evidence emerging. There are many cases of voter fraud that will simply go undetected especially if the fraud is done well. Does that mean that people can manipulate every election, and the answer is no.

But the only time we really scrutinize election results is when it is a very close election. How many people are committing voter fraud, but since a candidate won by a wide margin and that person was anticipated to win, no one investigates the result? It’s impossible to know, and anyone that tries to make it as they know, is just lying.

Types of Election Fraud

And there are several ways to commit election fraud.

Impersonation fraud at the polls:

Voting in the name of other legitimate voters and voters who have died, moved away, or lost their right to vote because they are felons, but remain registered. Now I do not believe this happens often. Certainly not enough that it could swing a presidential election. In fact, according to the Wall Street Journal, voter impersonation fraud is the least likely to be used.

Ineligible voting:

Illegal registration and voting by individuals who are not U.S. citizens, are convicted felons or are otherwise not eligible to vote. Some noncitizens do vote, and that shouldn’t come as a shock especially considering as more states provide driver licenses to illegal immigrants, some are also receiving voter registration forms. And it’s funny how the media tries to provide cover. I was reading an article, and someone from the Center for Election Innovation and Research said that states, “accidentally register noncitizens. Sometimes it’s just a misunderstanding between the motor vehicles department and election officials over whose job it is to verify citizenship.”

We don’t have any hard numbers and it is impossible to know given the little data. It’s concerning that Harvard, Princeton, MIT or one of these top ivy league institutions actually haven’t done a study. So, the data I found isn’t 100% reliable, but I did find a study from George Mason University that estimates 6.4% of non-citizens voted in the 2008 Presidential Election.

Now to be honest, that seems a little high to me. Estimates from MIT say we have approximately 20-22 million illegal immigrants in the United States. That would mean over 1.3 million illegal immigrants would have voted in that election. It would have impacted all down-ballot races, and many would have noticed the irregularities. Maybe that many are registered to vote, but I can’t see that many actually voting. Because the data isn’t clear, I would cut the number in half which is still an extraordinary amount when you consider it.

Illegal immigration isn’t the only type of voter fraud under this category. Anyone who is ineligible to vote falls under this category including convicted felons who did not have their voting rights restored. Now the numbers are relatively small given how many ballots are cast in an election, and I don’t think most felons are the most politically active people.

However, just to illustrate how a small number of votes can change an election, and therefore change policy, all one has to do is look at the 2008 Senate election between Norm Coleman and Al Franken.

Al Franken won the 2008 election by 312 votes. However, after months of investigations, they found 341 convicted felons voted in Hennepin County, and another 52 voted illegally in Ramsey county. This investigation was conducted after months of recounts, and after Franken was certified as the winner. (USNews)

This had a major impact on health policy in the United States. In 2010, the Affordable Care Act passed on a party-line vote where Democrats had 60-votes in the U.S. Senate thereby ramming the bill through. Had Norm Coleman been declared the winner, the Affordable Care Act would not have been able to pass because the Democrats were unable to get a single Republican vote.

Buying votes:

Paying voters to cast either an in-person or absentee ballot for a particular candidate. Shockingly enough, this actually does occur, and it’s difficult to quantify. From most of my research, it appears that this happens in most local elections where an election can be decided with as little as a handful of votes. (Washington Post)

Illegal “assistance” at the polls:

Forcing or intimidating voters—particularly the elderly, disabled, illiterate, and those for whom English is a second language—to vote for particular candidates while supposedly providing them with “assistance.” This number is impossible to find, and I don’t believe it is all that significant. While there may be a handful of cases like this that occurs, I have been unable to find any data on this type of voter fraud.

Duplicate voting:

Registering in multiple locations and voting in the same election in more than one jurisdiction or state. We know this happens and duplicate voting is the most common form of voter fraud among ordinary people.

A study published in the American Political Science Review, conducted by researchers at Stanford, Harvard, UPenn, and Microsoft (Not your conservative bastions), did find that duplicate voting existed.

Now, I don’t want to misrepresent the study. The researchers concluded that they don’t believe the double voting has a significant impact on the integrity of our elections, and they state that their error rate maybe 1.3% due to “small errors in electronic voting systems.

But from their study, they estimate approximately one in 4,000 voters cast two ballots. (Harvard)

Now that’s a big number. If I use these numbers, that means potentially 34,700 were illegally cast in the 2016 Election. This number is also in line with the Government Accountability Institute which estimates 45,000 incidents of duplicate voting. (GAI) And once again, this is not a Democrat or Republican issue. Clinton won Maine by 20k votes, Trump won Michigan by 11k votes, Clinton won New Hampshire by less than 3k votes. Trump won Wisconsin by 25k votes.

Fraudulent use of absentee ballots:

Requesting absentee ballots and voting without the knowledge of the actual voter, or obtaining the absentee ballot from a voter and either filling it indirectly and forging the voter’s signature or illegally telling the voter who to vote for. Absentee ballots are another area of concern.

Take a 2018 North Carolina congressional race where a Republican operative directed his workers to collect and mail in other people’s absentee ballots. It turns out these ballots were marred with inconsistencies, used the same addresses, had the same witnesses, and even forged signatures. The margin of victory in that election was only 905 votes. (NY Times)

Once the fraud was uncovered, a new election was called, but here is an example of one person potentially changing a few hundred ballots. So, you can’t just go by the surface numbers of one person/one vote because that may be a misrepresentation.

Voter registration rolls:

While the voter registration rolls don’t necessarily translate into actual votes on election day, we certainly have a problem when it comes to registration rolls. Voter registration rolls aren’t verified as often as they should be. The states are in charge of voter registration, and they need to do a better job of removing people once they pass away, move to a different jurisdiction, or get married and register to vote under a new last name.

I wish I had more recent data, but the most extensive study to date is a Pew Research study that found:

• 24 million voter registrations in the United States are “no longer valid or are significantly inaccurate.”
• More than 1.8 million deceased individuals are listed as voters.”
• Approximately 2.75 million people have registrations in more than one state. (Pew Research)

Another study conducted by Harvard finds that there may be as much as 10% of deadwood on voter registration rolls. This study validates the Pew Study. (Harvard) When people scream about the integrity of elections, they should demand that voter registration rolls be cleaned every couple of years.

Now, as I said, the voter rolls don’t necessarily translate into actual votes cast, but it’s a problem, nonetheless. It’s not malicious intent when people move. When moving, the last thing you’re thinking about is contacting the Board of Elections to let them know you have moved, but it’s a significant problem that could lead to double voting as I highlighted before.

It amazes me how quickly social security will get notified when someone dies or is sent to prison, and the Social Security Administration will stop sending checks. Having over a million dead people on voter rolls is simply unacceptable and increases the risk of fraud.

While it is a problem, many states have moved to make improvements, and they deserve credit. Many have signed onto a system known as the Electronic Registration Information Center, otherwise known as ERIC. 30 states have signed on, and it allows them to cross-reference residential changes, death, duplicate voter registrations, and convictions. While the system isn’t perfect and states need to routinely update the information to ensure accuracy, this is certainly a step in the right direction.

According to another study conducted by MIT’s Election Data and Science Lab, they find conflicting information between the U.S. Census Bureau and the State’s voter registration rolls. (MIT) When looking at official registration statistics, there are 9 states with more registered voters than the estimated citizen voting-age population which indicates a significant amount of these registrations have been inactive for quite some time, and the states have not done a great job ensuring the accuracy of their lists.

Voter Fraud Exists

I just provided you with a ton of information here, and that’s the difference between The P.A.S. Report and other outlets. Fraud exists. It’s real and it happens. The dishonest media outlets attempt to deceive their audience, and many on the left just parrot these same talking points. Why they can’t acknowledge fraud exists is beyond me. I don’t know the answer to that. However, what it does illustrate is their blatant hypocrisy when they scream that they care about the integrity of elections and Russia.

And I give you an honest analysis. And from the information I have researched, and for all of you out there, you should be much more worried about voter fraud in state and local elections, and elections for house and senate races rather than presidential elections. While voter fraud certainly exists in Presidential elections, its effect is largely minimized through the Electoral College. In order to defraud a Presidential election, there would have to be some widespread voter fraud that would raise several red flags as the results would be outliers. You would need a massive coordinated effort, which doesn’t mean it can’t happen, but the odds are relatively slim.

Voter ID

This brings me to the debate surrounding Voter ID laws. Off the bat, I will tell you that I support Voter ID laws. It’s illogical to think it’s inherently wrong or racist to ask for someone to show a valid ID to vote. Think about all the places we need an ID, whether it be to fly, to enter a state or federal building, school, drinking, etc.

To say it puts the undue burden on citizens is simply illogical. However, let’s just say that it does place an undue burden on some people, I will go so far as to say that if it creates a burden, then the easy solution is that the state will come to your home or workplace, fill out the forms with that person, and provide the ID free of charge. The reason I’m willing to go this far is that I know there would be a minute number of people that would require something like this. Also, if we implement this type of ID system, what would the left’s excuse be then to oppose such a measure? It would box them in a corner.

However, we also need to be honest and recognize that even that voter ID doesn’t change anything and would not prevent the overwhelming majority of fraud that occurs. As I stated before, voter impersonation is one of the least likely types of voter fraud to exist. It is extraordinarily rare. In addition, it would not stop ineligible voting. When you are granted a Driver License, it isn’t marked with convicted felon ineligible to vote, and it gets complicated with illegal immigration as more states are granting driver licenses to this population.

So, while I want Voter ID and think it’s a no brainer, it impacts on preventing fraud is negligible.

Mail-in-Voting

Which brings me to the current debate surrounding mail-in-voting. While we do see fraud amongst individuals, political activists and operatives are the ones that represent a bigger problem and commit fraud that is far more consequential. A mail-in-voting system can be ripe with abuses. Does it mean that’s what’s going to happen, the answer is no, but the chances of fraud do increase for a variety of reason?

First, many states already have provisions for absentee ballots where individuals, who cannot make it to the polls, can request an absentee ballot. What concerns me is the states that say they will mail ballots to every voter who is registered in their system. That means there will be a lot of ballots out there, and what checks are in place to ensure people don’t commit fraud?

When these people tell you that nothing can go wrong, consider them wrong about a lot. Remember when they tried electronic voting from an app in Iowa. It turned out to be an epic disaster.

Here’s what concerns me about mail-in-voting. On an individual level, I am concerned about a hyper-partisan family member who may try to vote for their children who are registered, there spouse, their parents, or anyone else they may be a caretaker too. Hyper-partisans may not see anything wrong with this. I am also concerned; they may try to influence people on how to vote. While it is impossible to know whether this would occur at large-scale levels, it certainly opens the door to potential abuses.

Just think about how people will steal lawn signs and takedown candidate posters for those candidates which they don’t like. Would it really be that far-fetched to think these types of people will fill out all the ballots they receive to the household?

Another problem is how will the elections boards verify that the ballots are accurate, and the person voting matches the same as the person registered to vote? Will they match signatures? Will they require some other documents? And what happens when they are inundated with mail-in-ballots? How much will they really be scrutinizing ballots when they receive hundreds of thousands? It would be nearly impossible to identify potential fraud.

But the biggest problem, the one I am most concerned about, is the abuses from within. Individual voters may have the potential to impact a few ballots. Those from within have the potential to impact thousands of ballots.

Every election cycle, we hear of stories where thousands of ballots go missing. Just recently in Wisconsin, there was a story of at least 9,000 absentee ballots requested by voters that were never sent. (NY Times) Remember the disaster in Broward County, Florida two years ago, were rejected ballots were mixed in with valid ballots. (Tampa Bay Times) Or where 3,000 ballots disappeared in Florida. (NY Times) Or what about in Michigan where a city clerk was arrested and charged with six felonies for falsifying absentee ballots. This person claimed that 193 ballots were invalid for missing signatures or the return date, when in fact, these ballots were properly filled out. (Detroit News)

Widespread mail-in-voting increases the risk of fraud including something known as ballot harvesting. This allows political operatives and others to collect voters’ ballots and turn large quantities of ballots over to the polling stations. In 2018, Democrats in California used the concept of ballot harvesting to gain success, as early indicators showed Republicans were leading, more and more late-arriving Democrat votes came to wipe out all Republican gains. Orange County, once a Republican stronghold in California, went Democrat after 250,000 vote-by-mail ballots were dropped off. I brought up the Republican North Carolina incident before surrounding absentee ballots that may have impacted up to 1,000 votes. See, I give examples of fraud from both sides of the political spectrum.

Closing

Until we can ensure that mail-in-voting is not subject to ballot harvest or political corruption, I am against it. There is too much opportunity for fraud and abuse. The fact that we live in such a polarized environment will only make it worse.

The fact is voter and election fraud does exist and we shouldn’t create opportunities to make it easier. The election is still several months out, and if states are going to go to a vote-by-mail option, they need to start planning soon, but they don’t have to make the decision today.

As we have witnessed with the coronavirus, a lot can change between now and then. Also, if it is safe to stay in line at a grocery store, home depot, or other retailers, why isn’t it okay to go to polling stations. The reality is that people can wear facemasks, we can have physical distancing, we can extend the number of days a polling station is open in order to reduce foot traffic. There are many measures we can take that ensure personal safety and upholds the integrity of the election.

Don’t let anyone fool you out there. I just gave you a comprehensive analysis of voter fraud and the problems with mail-in-voting. The point is to continue to point out the hypocrisy of those who claim they care about election integrity.

These people will claim that anyone who disagrees with them wants to suppress the voters and is a racist. They say that not because they have the facts on their side, but because they want to silence and intimidate anyone who disagrees. The fact is that even with states that have voter ID laws, voter turnout has increased for all federal and state elections. No one’s vote is being suppressed.

I encourage all my students to vote, but I tell them don’t vote by party line or name recognition. Learn about the candidates and determine if their issues match your values. I want as many people to vote as possible. I think our voter turnout is pathetically low. But I want informed voters, not blind loyalists.

I’m not necessarily against a mail-in-voting concept, but I want safety and security to be implemented before we go to large-scale use of mail-in-voting. I constantly highlight the flaws of the bureaucracy. I highlight the inefficiencies and ineffectiveness. I highlight the abuses of power here at The P.A.S. Report.

Do you really think, with all the incompetence, that state governments will be able to create a mail-in-voting system free from errors, abuses and fraud? Do you really think we won’t see major problems especially considering the fact of how they are rushing it? Do you really think political operatives won’t seize on the chaos to manipulate the election?

As I said before, if it’s about safety, we can ensure safety at polling stations throughout the country. If it’s safe enough to go to a store, it’s safe enough to vote. Stop looking to highjack the voting system for political purposes.

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As always, if there’s a topic or issue you want me to discuss, send me an email podcast@pasreport.com.

Thank you for joining us, stay safe, and I’ll be back next week.

 

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