The Midterm Election Results Top 9 Takeaways

Episode 338 Show Notes- The Midterm Election Results Top 9 Takeaways

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Episode Description

In this episode, Professor Giordano breaks down the top 9 takeaways from the midterm election results.

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Show Notes- The Midterm Elections, Energy, and the Curious Case of Paul Pelosi

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Takeaway 1- While there were some bright spots for republicans in this election, don’t be fooled. It was a disaster for republicans.

As far as the midterm election results go, it certainly didn’t go as expected. I expected Republicans to gain 35 seats in the House and 3 Senate seats. I also gave Congressman Zeldin a 50/50 chance of winning New York. Republicans didn’t meet that mark which brings me to the first takeaway.

While there were some bright spots for republicans in this election, don’t be fooled. It was a disaster for republicans.

Republicans will spin the fact that they did win some key races. They’ll point to victories in Florida. They will point to the defeat of Congressman Maloney here in New York. They’ll point to the fact that they essentially recaptured the House and now they can pump the breaks on the Democrat/Biden agenda.

The fact is that republicans should have destroyed democrats in this election given everything going on. I want you to think back to 2007/2008. The housing market crashed. We had the mortgage meltdown, and this pushed us into a recession. President Obama was elected. The democrats spent a ton of money and jammed through the Affordable Healthcare Act, better known as Obamacare.

Given that people’s personal economy was still suffering, the 2010 midterm election became a referendum on the Obama administration and the Democrat agenda. If you think back, Democrats got a shellacking in that election. The Republicans won 63 seats in the House of Representatives and 6 seats in the Senate. Out of 37 gubernatorial races, Republicans picked up a net gain of 6 governorships, and the Republicans flipped 20 state legislative bodies to give them control, gaining 680 state legislative seats throughout the country.

It was record-breaking. I mean, you want to talk about a tsunami, that was a tsunami.

That’s why it’s a disaster no matter how the Republicans try to spin this. The economy is far worse today than it was in 2010. Inflation is far higher today than it was in 2010. Interest rates are far higher. Crime is far higher. Illegal immigration is far higher. Students’ proficiency levels are far lower today than in 2010, which is actually pathetic because they weren’t all that high then.

So, when we examine this, Republicans should have had a massive wave, especially when you consider that 7 out of 10 voters said that the country is heading in the wrong direction. Normally, the majority party and whichever party controls the White House suffer in the midterm elections. There are only two exceptions to the rule. FDR when he came into office, and President George Bush following the 9/11 attacks and riding a wave of very high approval numbers. Those are the only exceptions to the rule, and that still holds.

Takeaway 2- Optics and expectations matter

But this brings me to the second takeaway: optics and expectations matter. Given everything I said, there were very high expectations when it came to the Republicans and they failed to deliver as the midterm election results indicate.

When you factor in the dissatisfaction and the current conditions with the economy, inflation, gas prices, crime, and everything else, it was easy to assume that this would have been a devastating defeat for democrats, and a clear repudiation of their agenda. Only that never happened and the fact that Republicans couldn’t capitalize in this environment, speaks volumes.

Even though the Democrats lost the House, and the Senate is still up in the air, it could have been far worse, and they didn’t lose by huge margins with a few exceptions. And it’s not to say that Republicans didn’t do well. If you look at someone like Congressman Zeldin, he overperformed in every single county in New York, and Kathy Hochul underperformed in every county except maybe one. Yet, that still wasn’t enough to oust her even though this state is in terrible shape.

Takeaway 3- Voters Vote Based on Emotions Rather Than Commonsense and Logic

This brings me to the third takeaway, which is that voters vote based on emotions rather than common sense and logic. Before the election, all the polls were showing that the economy and inflation were the top issues. You had the economy, inflation, gas prices, crime, immigration, education, and abortion ranked about 6^th in most of the issue polls.

Now, over the summer, when the Dobbs decision was first announced by the Supreme Court, I said that it would limit Republican gains. However, as time went on, the economy continued to decline as inflation continued to increase, I thought that the abortion issue waned in late August/early September. As the attention focused on economic concerns, I didn’t think abortion would play that great of a role, especially in states like New York given that it’s not going to be changed here anytime soon.

I completely underestimated this as an issue because according to the exit polling in the midterm election results, abortion ranked as a top issue for democrats, and it was the motivating factor to get them to the polls. Overall, it came in a lot higher on the list of issues than the polls were showing.

This is completely bizarre to me and illustrates that there are a whole lot of people who don’t use reason or logic when casting a ballot, they are driven purely by emotion.

Consider that about 1 or 2% of women will ever have an abortion. This is an issue that does not impact the overwhelming majority of society. Now consider how the economy impacts everyone. It doesn’t matter what political party you identify with. It doesn’t matter the color of your skin or what ethnicity you are. It doesn’t matter about sexual orientation or gender. Everyone is getting crushed in the economy.

Yet, you had people go out there, and even though they are suffering economically, they decided to vote based on abortion. That doesn’t make any sense to me. It certainly isn’t rational. Think about it this way. You’re struggling to fill up your car with gas because of the high prices. You see the random violence and don’t feel safe in your community. But hey, you’re going to vote based on something that may or may not happen. Sorry, but that’s just crazy to me, and it doesn’t make any logical sense.

Takeaway 4- People Vote Based on Ideology Rather Than Competency

This brings me to the fourth takeaway where people vote based on political party and ideology over competency. Last night’s midterm election results showed that people would vote for a turnip as long as it had a D or an R after its name.

Some will say that Republicans ran some bad candidates, and listen, I won’t dispute that, but this goes beyond bad candidates, and it reveals something about the people themselves. Just look at the Fetterman-Oz race. I’m not going to lie. The fact that John Fetterman stings.

The people in Pennsylvania that voted for Fetterman should be ashamed of themselves. Fetterman hasn’t recovered from his stroke. He has cognitive issues going on, but that didn’t matter to millions of voters in Pennsylvania. It doesn’t matter that he’s being exploited and used. See, as I explained a few weeks ago, Democrats had every opportunity to pull him from the ticket before and shortly after the primary. They could have put in Connor Lamb. I disagree with Connor Lamb on many of the issues, but he is a capable individual.

However, rather than run someone who has their mental capabilities fully intact, they decided to stick with Fetterman and the voters of Pennsylvania elected him to be in the Senate. It tells you everything you need to know about how ideological we are. Dr. Oz is more capable than Fetterman is, even if he wasn’t the best of candidates. Not for nothing, but Fetterman could hardly put coherent thoughts together. It’s not like he was this amazing candidate.

While it’s shocking that people would vote for this, it shouldn’t be all that surprising. Just look at the elder abuse being inflicted on Joe Biden. It’s not like everyone doesn’t see what’s going on. When people say they vote for the issues and their interests, that’s not true.

Fetterman openly stated he wanted to ban fracking and natural gas extraction in the state. This accounts for 6.1% of the jobs in Pennsylvania, and nearly 10% of its GDP. If you ban this, how do you think you’re going to make up for that loss and what do you think is going to happen to the prices? Two days before the election, you had President Biden come out there and say how he wants to put the oil, gas, and coal industry out of business. This certainly wouldn’t benefit Pennsylvania, yet the voters didn’t care.

As long as there is a body in the senate that has a D after his name, that’s all that matters. Just look at Senator Feinstein. There are reports she is suffering from advanced Alzheimers. She doesn’t recognize people. Can’t comprehend things. This is a big story that isn’t getting reported. She is a Senator from California. They could easily remove her and place her with another Democrat. Does anyway really think Governor Newsom wouldn’t appoint a Democrat? Yet they don’t care. As long as they have a vessel, that’s what matters.

You know, one of the main questions when electing someone to higher office is whether they are competent and capable. You might disagree with someone on the issues and that’s part of the process. But you would at least want capable individuals making policy. Not shadowy figures behind the scenes. We never elected.

It is disheartening how low our standards have become when selecting candidates.

Disaster can strike at any time. Be prepared and know that your family is well fed.

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Takeaway 5- Political Culture is Changing

Takeaway 5- when we look at everything that is happening in the country, it may be time for us to realize that the culture in America has changed, and not for the better. We used to be a center-right country, but can we call ourselves center-right anymore? The midterm election results raise several questions.

Not for nothing, but the pandemic revealed a lot about Americans where so many obediently and blindly obeyed unconstitutional decrees without asking any questions whatsoever.

Now some of us thought this was a fluke. Some chalked it up to people being afraid, and that we will return to normal once the pandemic passes, but I think something deeper is going on.

We are now a center-left country. It’s not that the people are center-left. It’s that republicans do a crappy job of explaining positions. Just look at something like drag queen story hour. If you criticize it, you will be labeled as far-right.

However, any normal human being knows this is completely inappropriate. I don’t shy away from the fact that I’m a conservative. But how is criticizing drag-time story hour conservative? It’s not. The fact is we would never tolerate playboy bunny story time for children. Normal human beings would say it’s completely inappropriate.

When it comes to issues like these, Republicans routinely frame these issues as political issues, and that’s the wrong approach, especially when 90% of the people probably agree with you on this issue.

Takeaway 6- Republicans Unable to Break Through the Narrative

This brings me to the sixth takeaway and how Republicans aren’t able to break through the narrative. Even though we have all these disasters going on, the Democrats have a stranglehold on the narrative, and given that the media industrial complex does the Democrat’s bidding, the Republicans weren’t able to take control of the narrative.

The voters didn’t punish the Democrats on the economy or inflation. It seems many bought into the line that inflation was a worldwide problem and that there is little we could do about it, which is a complete lie.

It’s clear democrats didn’t get blamed for the high energy price and blaming oil companies, Russia and Saudi Arabia worked for them.

When it comes to crime, remember, empress Hochul stated it’s a figment of our imagination. That it’s just Republicans trying to scare voters.

Takeaway 7- Republicans Identify Some of the Problems, Bad at Providing Solutions

Whatever issue you can think of, Republicans allowed Democrats to control the narrative. And while Republicans did a good job at highlighting some of the problems, they failed to attach them to the Democrat agenda. Even worse, they completely ignored major issues and the midterm election results reflect this. That’s the seventh takeaway.

Take education. Just two weeks ago, the Nation’s Report Card was released showing a huge decline in student proficiency levels. This was the largest drop in 30 years. Why didn’t Republicans exploit this, especially in urban areas where the elected officials and the teacher’s unions shut down the schools for nearly two years? Our education system has collapsed and given that the democrats have controlled education for the last century, these failures cannot be blamed on Republicans. Republicans should have pointed out that minority and at-risk populations suffered the most, and that the academic achievement gap has increased dramatically.

Yet, so many Republican candidates ignored this issue, and when they did bring up the issue of education, it wasn’t the decline in student performance they talked about. It wasn’t the fact that our education system collapsed. They focused solely on the woke issues rather than the totality of the system and its failures.

You also had candidates routinely try to tie their Democrat opponents to President Biden given Biden’s unpopularity. That’s understandable. However, they should have tied their opponents to the Democrat agenda and clearly articulate why their opponents are responsible. Provide examples of how their opponents support this agenda.

But more importantly, you have to provide solutions to the issues, and the Republican party as a whole failed at this. I criticized the Republicans when they released their “Commitment to America,” back in September. I explained how they should have released it months before September. More importantly, I criticized that it was mostly fluff. That it didn’t provide specific solutions to the problems we face.

Republicans need to put together a concrete plan on how they intend to solve the problems. Just harping on the issues isn’t enough to win races, especially in Democrat areas. When it comes to elections, you have to win over voters, and this election shows that while Republicans did win independents, they didn’t win by a large margin.

According to polling, many independents stated that Republicans need to offer solutions. That shows a disconnect.

Takeaway 8- The Entire Republican Leadership Needs to Go

The eighth takeaway is that a change of leadership is necessary for the Republican party. Minority Leader McConnell has got to go. He may be good at navigating Senate rules and procedures, but he isn’t that good at winning elections as the midterm election results show. The fact is that he abandoned Republicans in winnable races all because the establishment candidates lost.

And while the establishment candidates may have had a better chance at winning the general elections, the fact is that given everything going on, this election should have been a lay-up. One of the reasons Democrats see success is because they stick together even through their disputes. Republicans are notorious for stabbing each other in the back. It’s quite revealing.

As Republicans take control of the House and possibly the Senate, it will be interesting to see if anyone challenges Speaker McCarthy and Leader McConnell.

But it’s not just leadership in the House and Senate. Ronna McDaniel needs to go too. We need a clean slate.

Former President Trump also needs to back off his attacks on DeSantis. This certainly isn’t helping the party and sows the seeds of distractions from the disasters of the Democratic agenda. Consider how two days before the election, the former President attacked Governor DeSantis.

All day Sunday and throughout the day on Monday, that was the media cycle. Not the failing Democrat agenda. Not the increasing gas prices. Not the rampant crime. Instead, the media cycle revolved around the former President, and for what? What did that get us? Not for nothing, but he is hurting himself and the party. If he keeps that up, he will lose support and he already has the problem of winning over new voters.

Takeaway 9- Florida is No Longer a Swing State

The last takeaway is that Florida is no longer a swing state. Republicans dominated in Florida, and Republicans from around the country would be smart to take notice. Florida races were called pretty quickly and DeSantis and Rubio cruised to victory as the midterm election results came in.

Governor DeSantis has emerged as the biggest competitor to the former President if they both decide to toss their hats into the 2024 race.

However, one thing is clear. Florida doesn’t look like it’s in play for the next election cycle, which certainly helps Republicans on the electoral map.

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