Will Republicans See a Change in its Leadership?

Episode 340 Show Notes- Will Republicans See a Change in its Leadership?

Will Republicans See a Change in its Leadership

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Episode Description

Republicans are still reeling from the midterm election results and the red wave that never was. Given that expectations were so high, will Republicans conduct an election autopsy to see what went wrong? Will Republicans see a change in its leadership as a result?

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Show Notes- The Midterm Elections, Energy, and the Curious Case of Paul Pelosi

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Intro

Welcome to The P.A.S. Report Podcast.

I’ll tell you. I am still furious about the election and the failures of the Republican party. Not for nothing, I still have people emailing me saying I’m being too hard on the Republicans. That we did win, and I’m overblowing it.

Not for nothing, but the 2022 midterms were a disaster for the Republicans, especially when you factor in President Biden’s unpopularity, the number of people who say the country is heading in the wrong direction, the horrible economy, and how people are struggling, the surging crime, the collapse of the education system, the open borders. You name the issue and it’s a disaster across the board.

Republicans are still reeling from the midterm election results and the red wave that never materialized.

Given that the expectations were so high, and we fell far short, will Republicans see a change in its leadership?

We need to conduct an election autopsy to see what went wrong. I started this conversation last week with my 9 takeaways, but now that I have been able to go through some of the preliminary data, there is something that jumped out at me, and it should have every Republican and Conservative concerned.

I’m going to talk about that in this episode. I’m going to talk about the election as a whole where we keep seeing the same issues in the same states and the same counties. It’s not normal.

Most importantly, I’ll explain what the Republicans need to do to prevent this debacle from ever happening again, and I have to raise the question again, will Republicans see a change its leadership?

I’ll focus on it all. Before I jump in be sure to subscribe to the podcast, and if you find the show informative, share it with your family and friends. Also, I want to hear what you think. Write a review on Apple podcast or drop me an email at podcast@pasreport.com.

Why Does it Take So Long to Count Votes?

Before I get to the meat of the episode, I need to vent about why it takes so long for us to figure out the winners and losers of an election race.

Seriously, it is beyond frustrating, but more importantly, it should be unacceptable. We should know who won an election on election night or the very next day. The fact that it takes 5, 6, or 7 days to figure it out is unacceptable. Sometimes it’s weeks.

It bothers me. Go back 40 years ago and we were able to tabulate the votes on election night and determine the winners and losers for the most part. With all the advancements in technology, you would think we can count votes quicker, and it wouldn’t be an issue. Instead, it takes much longer, and the kicker is that these votes aren’t even being counted by hand in most cases. It’s a friggin’ machine doing the counting. We have a problem.

And it’s always the same places, right? You know, Democrats constantly preach about how anyone who questions the results of an election, is an election denier. They say questioning the election and the process is akin to the greatest threat to Democracy. That the Republic cannot withstand people questioning the election.

You would think given everything that happened in the 2020 election, you would think these places like Maricopa County in Arizona or Clark County in Nevada. You would think they would have gotten their act together. You would think they would have said that we can’t have a repeat in 2020, and so we must do everything to make sure the process is seamless,

and the votes are counted and reported quickly this way it prevents suspicions and accusations. When you constantly have these issues, and the results always go the same way, it’s no wonder why people don’t trust the process.

But no. They didn’t do a damn thing to reform the system, and people continue to lose faith in the electoral process. It is unacceptable, but they don’t care.

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Stop Screaming Fraud

Then you have those screaming that it’s all fraud and it’s rigged. This is part of the Republican problem. First of all, if you have legitimate evidence of fraud, then show the evidence. And I’m talking legitimate evidence, not screenshots going around online.

Now, I warned about mail-in-voting back in 2020. I warned of the mess it would create. But for all those people screaming about election fraud, and that nothing will change until we fix the election system, you can’t fix the election system if you don’t have power.

You can scream all you want, but that isn’t solving the problem and it certainly doesn’t help the situation. Republican turnout should have been at record levels, and while it appears Republicans won the overall popular vote in the midterms, they fell far short. For all those who want to scream fraud, you should be mad that more Republicans didn’t turn out to vote. That’s on us, not the Democrats, not the media, not the administration, and not mail-in-ballots.

Also, instead of discouraging people from voting by mail, why not use every available means to get as many votes as possible? We can criticize mail-in-voting all we want, but the longer it stays in place, the more it becomes normalized, and it will become really difficult to dismantle it.

Do you know what the Democrats and their organizations do? They educate their constituency on voting by mail. Not only do they make sure registered Democrats get the mail-in-ballots, but they also constantly call Democrat voters to make sure they submit the ballots. They’ll remind their members to fill them in and get them out. They hound their voters because they know that the longer a person holds onto to the ballot, the more likely they will forget about it and won’t vote.

This is the Democrat machine. Where is the Republican machine? Oh, that’s right too many want to discourage all available means of voting. How many Republicans said they were going to vote, and then election day came, and they came up with several excuses for how busy they are and why they can’t make it to the polls? I have no idea, and we will never know, but one has to wonder what impact this may or may not have had.

As I said in my conversation with Lee Smith last week, for every race, Republicans need an even bigger turnout to make up for any shenanigans.

But for those who didn’t go out and vote, you no longer have a right to complain about what’s going on in New York State or the country. By not voting, you gave tacit approval to the Democratic agenda and endorsed their failed policies.

So, you can complain it’s rigged all you want, but nothing will change by complaining about it and staying home. Also, when you keep screaming that it’s all fraud, how many people are you discouraging from voting? How many people will say to themselves- what’s the point? My vote doesn’t matter. The system is rigged.

That’s what handed the Senate to the Democrats in 2020 where you had a bunch of morons telling people to boycott the vote and don’t go to the polls.

Like I said- I don’t like mail-in-voting, but if it’s going to remain, we might as well take advantage, and then when we finally do win elections and take these states, push for the same reforms that Florida made.

Look at Florida. It’s the third-largest state. The third largest state that can announce all vote totals on election night. Imagine that. All registered voters are eligible to vote by mail. They allow early voting, and they vote on election day. No one is complaining about Florida or calling their election rigged. Florida is a model that other states need to follow, but we can’t import that model until we win elections.

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Youth Voter Turnout

The media keeps reporting that the youth turnout in the 2022 midterms was near record turnout. What they aren’t saying is that youth turnout continues to significantly lag behind other age demographics. In addition, given the nature of our election process, the youth turnout varies from jurisdiction to jurisdiction. While some did see higher turnout, other areas saw turnout similar to previous elections.

Tuft’s University Center for Information and Research on Civic Learning and Engagement reports 27% of young people (ages 18-29) turned out to vote in the 2022 midterm elections. Many are reporting that this is the second-highest youth turnout in decades, and we only saw a higher number in the 2018 midterms.

It’s important to know that these estimates are based on exit polling and official numbers won’t be coming for quite some time.

Also, many in the media are mischaracterizing the number and what it means. The 27% is based on all eligible voting age population between the ages 18-29 that cast a ballot. It is not based on the total share of the electorate.

The same report states that younger voters made up a smaller share of the electorate than in 2018. In 2018, the young voter share of ballots cast was about 13%, and in 2022, the number is down to 12%. The young voter’s percentage of the electorate in the midterms:

2006- 12%
2010- 11.3%
2014- 10%
2018- 13%
2022- 11-12% (estimated)

If you notice, these numbers are fairly flat and consistent where young people make up 10-13% of the electorate.

While the breakdown of the electorate based on age has yet to be finalized, if all age demographics saw an uptick, reports of youth turnout will prove to be overhyped.

This is not to say that the youth vote didn’t have any impact. Given how close some of the races were the youth vote could have prevented Republicans from winning several key races. For example, early numbers show that the youth voters favored Senate elect John Fetterman by 19-points. In another example, Arizona saw an uptick which may have been the difference maker in Arizona’s governor’s race and a few house seats.

Younger voters do appear to be more civically engaged in the last three election cycles, but again, so have all age demographics as turnout has improved in every age group, but the percentage within the electorate hasn’t shifted all that much.

Regardless of whether they decided the election, the youth vote is an important voter bloc. I’ve been teaching for the last 17 years, and over the last five years, I have noticed my students becoming much more civically engaged. They are not political animals, but they do care about issues that affect them.

Republicans underestimated the impact of abortion and the student debt issue allowing Democrats to grab a 28-point advantage in the youth vote. This should be unacceptable.

Even though I believe reports of youth participation are exaggerated, Republicans should not sleep on this voter block because if the youth vote does happen to increase their percentage within the electorate, it could have significant consequences going forward.

When it comes to abortion, this is an issue that will remain going forward, and Republicans would be wise to control the narrative. Too many Republicans were wishy-washy when it came to this issue.

The fact that Republicans would stammer and stutter whenever they were asked about abortion was ridiculous. Republicans have been campaigning on this issue for the last 50 years so own it. You can celebrate the Dobb’s decision and it shouldn’t matter if you lose votes.

Rather than republicans explaining their position, they instead tried to be vague about where they stood and voters, especially young people, see right through that nonsense. And whenever a Republican was asked about rape and incest, they would give some dumb half-assed answer. Take control of the narrative. Because .0001% of abortions occur due to rape and incest, yeah, I would make an exception for that.

They should have forced Democrats to explain where they stand on the issue. They should have forced Democrats to go on record and state whether they support late-term abortions, partial-birth abortions, or post-birth abortions.

Instead, Republicans let Democrats get away with Democrats screaming about women’s healthcare and reproductive rights. Why? Every one of them should have been asked if abortion illustrates an enlightened and righteous society or if it reflects a primitive barbaric society.

When it comes to the student loan issue, you have to give it to democrats and Biden’s vote-buying scheme. It worked even though there isn’t a chance in hell that this goes through.

Republicans need to focus on issues that appeal to young voters. They should have spoken about the failed education system. They should have focused on explaining what they can do in an attempt to lower the cost of college. They could have explained how colleges should be on the hook for all the useless degree programs that have no practical applications outside of academia.

More importantly, Republicans should have focused on how democrats stole two years of their lives during the pandemic. Forcing young people to forego major life events like graduations, proms, going out with friends, and so much more. That it was Democrats that kept them socially isolated stealing their youth from them and setting them back. Republicans should have reminded the younger voters that it was the government officials that are directly responsible for the mental health crisis ravaging their generation.

Republicans should have explained how Democrats are trying to divide us on race and are treating their generation as the most racist and bigoted generation even though the reality is that the younger Americans are the most open and tolerant generation to ever exist.

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Independents Go Democrat

But the bigger problem Republicans have, the most glaring problem, is independents. This is something that should concern every single Republican, especially the Republican leaders, but they don’t seem concerned at all. It’s why I ask-Will Republicans See a Change in its Leadership?

Consider that in a normal midterm election year, the minority party usually carries independents by double digits. In this election, Democrats carried independents by 2%- 49 to 47. Again, these aren’t the official numbers, but it gives us a rough estimate.

The fact that Democrats got a bigger share of independent voters is insane when you factor in the economy, crime, inflation, gas prices, and the failures within the education system.

Republicans need to figure this out or they will have a difficult time winning elections going forward. You need independent voters because they are the ones that decide elections.

So, what went wrong here, especially since all polls were showing republicans with a larger share of independent voters and how only 36% of independents are satisfied with President Biden and the democrats?

This tells me that it’s a messaging and turnout issue. First on the messaging. It’s obvious Republicans did not do a good job of providing solutions. While republicans did fine at highlighting the problems, that wasn’t all that hard to do. Every American can feel the problems. Every American is struggling financially, and they have to make tough decisions day in and day out.

However, if you don’t explain to voters how you intend to solve problems, you’re not going to gain support, and that’s exactly what happened. Republicans put out their “Commitment to America,” but it was all fluff and no substance.

The second problem was Republicans do not do a good job of getting voters to the polls. During midterm elections, the rule of thumb was to turn out your bases. Whichever base comes out en masse will determine the midterms.

That was the old model. In my opinion, Republicans focused way too much on people who already agree with them. They focused on those who already will go out and vote. Unfortunately, we are stuck in echo chambers and too many candidates don’t like to go out of that chamber.

Republican and conservative voters already have their minds made up. It’s important to turn them out, but many of them are going to go out and vote because they’re fed up with this administration and the state of the country.

We need to focus much more on independent voters and better explain the solutions to the problems we face.

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Go Into the Inner City

Also, if you want to win elections, don’t be shy about going into urban areas and trying to win over Democratic voters or people who normally don’t vote. Leadership hates this so when will Republicans see a change in leadership?

If you’ve been listening to this podcast, I have been harping on this since I started the podcast. Republicans have all but surrendered these areas to the democrats. Why? Especially given the issues.

The fact is that the party apparatus, as well as state and local GOP groups, should be trying to win over these people. It doesn’t mean you’re going to go into these areas and it’s immediately going to translate into majorities, but if republicans make the time and money investment, you can pick off 20, 30, maybe even 40%. That would be enough to dominate the political landscape in some areas.

And republicans had a golden opportunity to do that this election cycle, but they failed. Remember, I always say never underestimate the stupidity of the GOP apparatus.

What’s so frustrating is how three weeks ago, the Department of Education announced a major drop in basic proficiency levels among students.

Why didn’t Republicans go into these areas and talk to the parents? Tell those parents that they were the ones that kept their children out of school for two years. That they were the ones that forced their children to wear masks. That it was the Democrats, in collusion with the AFT and the NEA, that increased the academic achievement gap by epic proportions. That they socially isolated their children causing massive mental health issues. But hey, it’s not like Republican leadership fought all that hard for the children during the pandemic. It’s why we need a change. Will Republicans See a Change in its Leadership?

They need to focus on that.

Closing- Will Republicans See a Change in its Leadership?

So given the results, will Republicans see a change its leadership? I warned at the end of August that if Republicans blow this, they don’t deserve to lead. Take a listen to what I said then.

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Sound Clip

That’s my rant today. The leadership has failed, and Republicans need to take accountability for these failures, particularly the leadership. We have to work on making a more persuasive case to win over Americans.

I hope you found the content of this episode informative. I appreciate all the 5-star ratings on Apple Podcasts, and if you have 30-seconds please write a good review.

I want to thank you for joining me, and I’ll be back on Monday with another great episode of The P.A.S. Report Podcast.

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